The probability of potentially useful work days during the year in Londrina
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0359.2012v33n6p2215Palavras-chave:
Negative binomial distribution, Markov Chain, Conditional probability, Outside works, Agriculture trafficability.Resumo
The probabilities associated with the number of days suitable for working outdoors and for working with machinery in the field were estimated for the municipality of Londrina, state of Parana, Brazil. Days with less than 10 mm of precipitation were considered suitable for outdoor operations. The number of days per month and the number of ten-day periods satisfying this condition were modeled with a negative binomial distribution, and the probabilities were estimated at different levels. The days suitable for working with machinery in the field were specified as those days for which the values of water storage in the soil were at or below 90% of the available water capacity in the upper 30 cm of the soil and for which the precipitation was less than 5 mm. A first-order Markov chain was used to estimate the conditional probabilities of favorable days for working with machinery in the field. The results indicated that the best time to work outdoors in Londrina extends from April through September, with the most favorable period occurring between late July and early September. The highest probabilities of favorable days for working in the field occur during April and from June through August. The probabilities of two consecutive days favorable for working with machinery in the field are highest between June and August. These probabilities allow the determination of the needs for the performance of tasks involving mechanized equipment.
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Copyright (c) 2012 Semina: Ciências Agrárias
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