The probability of potentially useful work days during the year in Londrina
Palavras-chave:Negative binomial distribution, Markov Chain, Conditional probability, Outside works, Agriculture trafficability.
The probabilities associated with the number of days suitable for working outdoors and for working with machinery in the field were estimated for the municipality of Londrina, state of Parana, Brazil. Days with less than 10 mm of precipitation were considered suitable for outdoor operations. The number of days per month and the number of ten-day periods satisfying this condition were modeled with a negative binomial distribution, and the probabilities were estimated at different levels. The days suitable for working with machinery in the field were specified as those days for which the values of water storage in the soil were at or below 90% of the available water capacity in the upper 30 cm of the soil and for which the precipitation was less than 5 mm. A first-order Markov chain was used to estimate the conditional probabilities of favorable days for working with machinery in the field. The results indicated that the best time to work outdoors in Londrina extends from April through September, with the most favorable period occurring between late July and early September. The highest probabilities of favorable days for working in the field occur during April and from June through August. The probabilities of two consecutive days favorable for working with machinery in the field are highest between June and August. These probabilities allow the determination of the needs for the performance of tasks involving mechanized equipment.
Copyright (c) 2012 Semina: Ciências Agrárias
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Os Direitos Autorais para artigos publicados são de direito da revista. Em virtude da aparecerem nesta revista de acesso público, os artigos são de uso gratuito, com atribuições próprias, em aplicações educacionais e não-comerciais.
A revista se reserva o direito de efetuar, nos originais, alterações de ordem normativa, ortográfica e gramatical, com vistas a manter o padrão culto da língua e a credibilidade do veículo. Respeitará, no entanto, o estilo de escrever dos autores.
Alterações, correções ou sugestões de ordem conceitual serão encaminhadas aos autores, quando necessário. Nesses casos, os artigos, depois de adequados, deverão ser submetidos a nova apreciação.
As opiniões emitidas pelos autores dos artigos são de sua exclusiva responsabilidade.