The probability of potentially useful work days during the year in Londrina

Autores

  • Letícia Trindade Ataíde Universidade Estadual de Londrina
  • Paulo Henrique Caramori Instituto Agronômico do Paraná
  • Wilian da Silva Ricce Instituto Agronômico do Paraná
  • Danilo Augusto Bambini Silva Instituto Agronômico do Paraná
  • José Roberto Pinto de Souza Universidade Estadual de Londrina

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0359.2012v33n6p2215

Palavras-chave:

Negative binomial distribution, Markov Chain, Conditional probability, Outside works, Agriculture trafficability.

Resumo

The probabilities associated with the number of days suitable for working outdoors and for working with machinery in the field were estimated for the municipality of Londrina, state of Parana, Brazil. Days with less than 10 mm of precipitation were considered suitable for outdoor operations. The number of days per month and the number of ten-day periods satisfying this condition were modeled with a negative binomial distribution, and the probabilities were estimated at different levels. The days suitable for working with machinery in the field were specified as those days for which the values of water storage in the soil were at or below 90% of the available water capacity in the upper 30 cm of the soil and for which the precipitation was less than 5 mm. A first-order Markov chain was used to estimate the conditional probabilities of favorable days for working with machinery in the field. The results indicated that the best time to work outdoors in Londrina extends from April through September, with the most favorable period occurring between late July and early September. The highest probabilities of favorable days for working in the field occur during April and from June through August. The probabilities of two consecutive days favorable for working with machinery in the field are highest between June and August. These probabilities allow the determination of the needs for the performance of tasks involving mechanized equipment.

Biografia do Autor

Letícia Trindade Ataíde, Universidade Estadual de Londrina

Agronomist, Doctor Student in Agronomy, Graduate studies Dept., CCA, University of Londrina, UEL, Rod. Celso Garcia Cid, Km 380, CEP: 86051-990, Londrina, PR.

Paulo Henrique Caramori, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná

Agronomist, PhD, Research Scientist at Instituto Agronômico do Paraná, IAPAR, Rod. Celso Garcia Cid, Km 375, CEP: 86047-902, Londrina, PR.

Wilian da Silva Ricce, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná

Agronomist, Doctor in Agronomy, Researcher at Agroconsult Ltda, IAPAR, Londrina, PR.

Danilo Augusto Bambini Silva, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná

Expert in Computer Science at Agroconsult Ltda, IAPAR, Londrina, PR.

José Roberto Pinto de Souza, Universidade Estadual de Londrina

Agronomist, Prof. Dr. at the Agronomy Deptº of University of Londrina, UEL, Londrina, PR.

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Publicado

2012-12-04

Como Citar

Ataíde, L. T., Caramori, P. H., Ricce, W. da S., Silva, D. A. B., & Souza, J. R. P. de. (2012). The probability of potentially useful work days during the year in Londrina. Semina: Ciências Agrárias, 33(6), 2215–2226. https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0359.2012v33n6p2215

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