Cox-Gompertz model for analysis of the time of stay in an Anglo-Nubian goat herd
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0359.2021v42n5p2937Keywords:
Body condition score, Censoring, Culling, EPG, Famacha.Abstract
Anglo-Nubian goats are hardy animals able to adapt to tropical environments, where their farming is usually held on pasture. However, climatic conditions in this environment also favor endoparasitism, which implies a negative aspect if sensitivity to worm infections interferes by reducing the reproductive lifespan of females, as their stay in the herd is a trait of great importance for efficient goat farming. In this respect, this study proposes to use the survival analysis methodology with the Cox-Gompertz proportional hazards model to assess the length of stay in the herd by relating the removal of females due to death with worm infection being the main cause to other forms of culling, using information from 101 Anglo-Nubian goats born from 2009 to 2013 in an experimental herd from Teresina - PI, Brazil. The Cox-Gompertz proportional hazards model chose body condition score, birth weight and birth season as important covariates (p-value bigger smaller 10%). Body condition score showed to be a favorable factor for the longer stay of the goats in the herd. Eggs per gram, age at first kidding, birth type and dam age were not significant. The Cox-Gompertz proportional hazards model is suitable for fitting the statistical model to estimate the length of stay in the herd, with censoring related to endoparasitism in Anglo-Nubian goats.Downloads
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References
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Cornelius, M. P., Jacobson, C., & Besier, R. B. (2014). Body condition score as a selection tool for targeted selective treatment-based nematode control strategies in Merino ewes. Veterinary Parasitology, 206(3-4), 173-181. doi: 10.1016/j.vetpar.2014.10
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Gowane, G. R., Chopra, A., Prakash, V., & Prince, L. L. L. (2014). The role of maternal effects in sheep breeding: a review. Indian Journal of Small Ruminants, 20(1), 1-11.
Hayward, A. D., Nussey, D. H., Wilson, A. J., Berenos, C., Pilkington, J. G., Watt, K. A.,… Graham, A. L. (2014). Natural selection on individual variation in tolerance of gastrointestinal nematode infection. PLoS Biology, 12(7), e1001917. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001917
Kaplan, E. L., & Meier, P. (1958). Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53(282), 457-481. doi: 10.2307/2281868
Kirkwood, T. B. (2015). Deciphering death: a commentary on Gompertz (1825) “On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies”. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 370(1666), 20140379. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2014.0379
Lawless, J. F. (2011). Statistical models and methods for lifetime data. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Lima, C. M., Tomazella, V. L., Campelo, J. E., Anastácio, J. L. A., Fº., Barioni, W., Jr., & Sousa, S. C., Jr. (2021). Gamma-Gompertz shared frailty model for analysis of the time of stay in an Anglo-Nubian goat herd. Small Ruminant Research, 199, 106368. doi: 10.1016/j.smallrumres.2021.106368
Machado, R., Corrêa, R. F., Barbosa, R. T., & Bergamaschi, M. A. C. M. (2008). Escore da condição corporal e sua aplicação no manejo reprodutivo de ruminantes. São Carlos, SP: EMBRAPA.
Mantel, N., & Haenszel, W. (1959). Statistical aspects of the analysis of data from retrospective studies of disease. Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 22(4), 719-748. doi: 10.1093/jnci/22.4.719
Maylinda, S., Sarah, O. L., & Busono, W. (2018). Role of seasons on the production and reproduction performance of kacang goats (Kambing kacang) in North Middle Timor Regency. Indian Journal of Animal Research, 52(8), 1227-1231. doi: 10.18805/ijar.B-668
Molento, M. B., Tasca, C., Gallo, A., Ferreira, M., Bononi, R., & Stecca, E. (2004). Método Famacha como parâmetro clínico individual de infecção por Haemonchus contortus em pequenos ruminantes. Ciência Rural, 34(4), 1139-1145. doi: 10.1590/S0103-84782004000400027
Molento, M. B., Veríssimo, C. J., Amarante, A. T., van Wyk, J. A., Chagas, A. C. S., Araújo, J. V., & Borges, F. A. (2013). Alternativas para o controle de nematoides gastrintestinais de pequenos ruminantes. Arquivo do Instituto Biológico, 80(2), 253-263. doi: 10.1590/S1808-16572013000200018
Moore, D. F. (2016). Applied survival analysis using R. New York, NY: Springer.
Nikulin, M. S., Balakrishnan, N., Mesbah, M., & Limnios, N. (Eds.). (2013). Parametric and semiparametric models with applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life. Boston: Springer Science & Business Media.
Queiroz, S. A. (2012). Introdução ao melhoramento genético de bovinos de corte. Guaíba: Agrolivros.
Quintas, H., & Cardoso, L. (2012). Vermes parasitas digestivos de ovinos e caprinos. Guia sanitário para criadores de pequenos ruminantes. In A. Mendonça (Ed.), Guia sanitário para criadores de pequenos ruminantes (pp. 155-164). Bragança, Portugal: Instituto Politécnico de Bragança.
R Core Team (2013). R: A Language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
Salama, A. A. K., Caja, G., Hamzaoui, S., Badaoui, B., Castro-Costa, A., Façanha, D. A. E.,... Bozzi, R. (2014). Different levels of response to heat stress in dairy goats. Small Ruminant Research, 121(1), 73-79. doi: 10.1016/j.smallrumres.2013.11.021
Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. The Annals of Statistics, 6(2), 461-464. doi: 10.1214/aos/1176344136
Silva, M. G. C. M., Diniz, C. R., & Rosado, A. C. (2015). Criação racional de caprinos. Lavras, MG: UFLA.
Silva, N. C. S. (2011). Efeitos ambientais que interferem no endoparasitismo em matrizes da raça Anglonubiana em Teresina - Piauí. 2010. Dissertação de mestrado, Pós-Graduação em Ciência Animal, Universidade Federal do Piauí, Teresina, PI, Brasil.
Silveira, F. A., Ferreira, O. G. L., Coelho, R. T., Brondani, W. C., Costa, O. A. D., & Esteves, R. M. G. (2013). Influência da idade na resistência à verminose de borregas cruza Lacaune. Anais da Jornada Acadêmica Integrada, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, RS, Brasil, 28. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280114494
Snyman, M. A., & Fisher, A. D. (2019). Genetic parameters for traits associated with resistance to Haemonchus contortus in a South African Dohne Merino sheep flock. Small Ruminant Research, 76-88(176), 76-88. doi: 10.1016/j.smallrumres.2019.01.004
Stotzer, E. S., Lopes, L. B., Eckstein, C., Moraes, M. C. M. M., Rodrigues, D. S., & Bastianetto, E. (2014). Impacto econômico das doenças parasitárias na pecuária. Revista Brasileira de Higiene e Sanidade Animal, 8(3), 198-221. doi: 10.5935/1981-2965.20140128
Torres, T. S. (2019). Métodos tradicionais e genômicos aplicados ao melhoramento genético de ovinos para resistência a verminose. Tese de doutorado, Pós-graduação em Ciência Animal, Universidade Federal do Piauí, Teresina, PI, Brasil.
Batista, J. F., Campelo, J. E. G., Morais, M. F., Silva, P. O., Magalhães, P. C., Barçante, F. P. D. S., & Mendonça, I. L. (2014). Endoparasitismo gastrintestinal em cabras da raça Anglonubiana. Revista Brasileira de Saúde e Produção Animal, 15(2), 318-326. doi: 10.1590/S1519-99402014000200016
Bishop, S. C. (2012). A consideration of resistance and tolerance for ruminant nematode infections. Frontiers in Genetics, 3(1), 168. doi: 10.3389/fgene.2012.00168
Castañeda-Bustos, V. J., Montaldo, H. H., Valencia-Posadas, M., Shepard, L., Pérez-Elizalde, S., Hernández-Mendo, O., & Torres-Hernández, G. (2017). Linear and nonlinear genetic relationships between type traits and productive life in US dairy goats. Journal of Dairy Science, 100(2), 1232-1245. doi: 10.3168/ jds.2016-11313
Charlier, J., Voort, M., Kenyon, F., Skuce, P., & Vercruysse, J. (2014). Chasing helminths and their economic impact on farmed ruminants. Trends in Parasitology, 30(7), 361-367. doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2014.04.009
Colosimo, E. A., & Giolo, S. R. (2006). Análise de sobrevivência aplicada. São Paulo, SP: Editora Blucher.
Conrado, V. D. C., Arandas, J. K. G., & Ribeiro, M. N. (2015). Regression models to predict the weight of Caninde goat breed through morphometric measures. Archivos de Zootecnia, 64(247), 277-280. doi: 10. 21071/az.v64i247.400
Cornelius, M. P., Jacobson, C., & Besier, R. B. (2014). Body condition score as a selection tool for targeted selective treatment-based nematode control strategies in Merino ewes. Veterinary Parasitology, 206(3-4), 173-181. doi: 10.1016/j.vetpar.2014.10
Costa, V. M. M., Simões, S. V. D., & Riet-Correa, F. (2011). Controle das parasitoses gastrintestinais em ovinos e caprinos na região semiárida do Nordeste do Brasil. Pesquisa Veterinária Brasileira, 31(1), 65-71. doi: 10.1590/S0100-736X2011000100010 .
Cox, D. R. (1972). Regression models and life‐tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 34(2), 187-202. doi: 10.1111/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.x
Cox, D. R., & Snell, E. J. (1968). A general definition of residuals. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 30(2), 248-265. doi: 10.1111/j.2517-6161.1968.tb00724.x
Dey, S., Moala, F. A., & Kumar, D. (2018). Statistical properties and different methods of estimation of Gompertz distribution with application. Journal of Statistics and Management Systems, 21(5), 839-876. doi: 10.1080/09720510.2018.1450197
Ferreira, T. A., Martins, P. G., Gouveia, G. C., Abreu, L. R., Gouveia, A. M., Facó, O.,... Pereira, I. G. (2020). Proportional hazard models associated with the survival of dairy goats reared in a tropical environment. Small Ruminant Research, 184, 106063. doi: 10.1016/j.smallrumres.2020.106063
Finch, C. E., & Pike, M. C. (1996). Maximum life span predictions from the Gompertz mortality model. The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, 51(3), B183-B194. doi: 10.1093/gerona/51a.3.b183
Gowane, G. R., Chopra, A., Prakash, V., & Prince, L. L. L. (2014). The role of maternal effects in sheep breeding: a review. Indian Journal of Small Ruminants, 20(1), 1-11.
Hayward, A. D., Nussey, D. H., Wilson, A. J., Berenos, C., Pilkington, J. G., Watt, K. A.,… Graham, A. L. (2014). Natural selection on individual variation in tolerance of gastrointestinal nematode infection. PLoS Biology, 12(7), e1001917. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001917
Kaplan, E. L., & Meier, P. (1958). Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53(282), 457-481. doi: 10.2307/2281868
Kirkwood, T. B. (2015). Deciphering death: a commentary on Gompertz (1825) “On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies”. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 370(1666), 20140379. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2014.0379
Lawless, J. F. (2011). Statistical models and methods for lifetime data. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Lima, C. M., Tomazella, V. L., Campelo, J. E., Anastácio, J. L. A., Fº., Barioni, W., Jr., & Sousa, S. C., Jr. (2021). Gamma-Gompertz shared frailty model for analysis of the time of stay in an Anglo-Nubian goat herd. Small Ruminant Research, 199, 106368. doi: 10.1016/j.smallrumres.2021.106368
Machado, R., Corrêa, R. F., Barbosa, R. T., & Bergamaschi, M. A. C. M. (2008). Escore da condição corporal e sua aplicação no manejo reprodutivo de ruminantes. São Carlos, SP: EMBRAPA.
Mantel, N., & Haenszel, W. (1959). Statistical aspects of the analysis of data from retrospective studies of disease. Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 22(4), 719-748. doi: 10.1093/jnci/22.4.719
Maylinda, S., Sarah, O. L., & Busono, W. (2018). Role of seasons on the production and reproduction performance of kacang goats (Kambing kacang) in North Middle Timor Regency. Indian Journal of Animal Research, 52(8), 1227-1231. doi: 10.18805/ijar.B-668
Molento, M. B., Tasca, C., Gallo, A., Ferreira, M., Bononi, R., & Stecca, E. (2004). Método Famacha como parâmetro clínico individual de infecção por Haemonchus contortus em pequenos ruminantes. Ciência Rural, 34(4), 1139-1145. doi: 10.1590/S0103-84782004000400027
Molento, M. B., Veríssimo, C. J., Amarante, A. T., van Wyk, J. A., Chagas, A. C. S., Araújo, J. V., & Borges, F. A. (2013). Alternativas para o controle de nematoides gastrintestinais de pequenos ruminantes. Arquivo do Instituto Biológico, 80(2), 253-263. doi: 10.1590/S1808-16572013000200018
Moore, D. F. (2016). Applied survival analysis using R. New York, NY: Springer.
Nikulin, M. S., Balakrishnan, N., Mesbah, M., & Limnios, N. (Eds.). (2013). Parametric and semiparametric models with applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life. Boston: Springer Science & Business Media.
Queiroz, S. A. (2012). Introdução ao melhoramento genético de bovinos de corte. Guaíba: Agrolivros.
Quintas, H., & Cardoso, L. (2012). Vermes parasitas digestivos de ovinos e caprinos. Guia sanitário para criadores de pequenos ruminantes. In A. Mendonça (Ed.), Guia sanitário para criadores de pequenos ruminantes (pp. 155-164). Bragança, Portugal: Instituto Politécnico de Bragança.
R Core Team (2013). R: A Language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
Salama, A. A. K., Caja, G., Hamzaoui, S., Badaoui, B., Castro-Costa, A., Façanha, D. A. E.,... Bozzi, R. (2014). Different levels of response to heat stress in dairy goats. Small Ruminant Research, 121(1), 73-79. doi: 10.1016/j.smallrumres.2013.11.021
Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. The Annals of Statistics, 6(2), 461-464. doi: 10.1214/aos/1176344136
Silva, M. G. C. M., Diniz, C. R., & Rosado, A. C. (2015). Criação racional de caprinos. Lavras, MG: UFLA.
Silva, N. C. S. (2011). Efeitos ambientais que interferem no endoparasitismo em matrizes da raça Anglonubiana em Teresina - Piauí. 2010. Dissertação de mestrado, Pós-Graduação em Ciência Animal, Universidade Federal do Piauí, Teresina, PI, Brasil.
Silveira, F. A., Ferreira, O. G. L., Coelho, R. T., Brondani, W. C., Costa, O. A. D., & Esteves, R. M. G. (2013). Influência da idade na resistência à verminose de borregas cruza Lacaune. Anais da Jornada Acadêmica Integrada, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, RS, Brasil, 28. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280114494
Snyman, M. A., & Fisher, A. D. (2019). Genetic parameters for traits associated with resistance to Haemonchus contortus in a South African Dohne Merino sheep flock. Small Ruminant Research, 76-88(176), 76-88. doi: 10.1016/j.smallrumres.2019.01.004
Stotzer, E. S., Lopes, L. B., Eckstein, C., Moraes, M. C. M. M., Rodrigues, D. S., & Bastianetto, E. (2014). Impacto econômico das doenças parasitárias na pecuária. Revista Brasileira de Higiene e Sanidade Animal, 8(3), 198-221. doi: 10.5935/1981-2965.20140128
Torres, T. S. (2019). Métodos tradicionais e genômicos aplicados ao melhoramento genético de ovinos para resistência a verminose. Tese de doutorado, Pós-graduação em Ciência Animal, Universidade Federal do Piauí, Teresina, PI, Brasil.
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2021-07-02
How to Cite
Lima, C. M. M., Tomazella, V. L. D., Sousa Junior, S. C. de, Campelo, J. E. G., Sena, L. S., & Barioni Junior, W. (2021). Cox-Gompertz model for analysis of the time of stay in an Anglo-Nubian goat herd. Semina: Ciências Agrárias, 42(5), 2937–2958. https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0359.2021v42n5p2937
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