Os regimes políticos e as guerras civis: uma discussão metodológica
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/2176-6665.2012v17n1p235Palavras-chave:
Guerra civil, Regimes políticos, Bases de dadosResumo
A guerra civil é uma das formas de violência coletiva mais importante de nossa época. Embora a literatura tenha destacado a relação entre determinadas variáveis e o início das guerras civis, a influência dos regimes políticos nos conflitos internos ainda é controversa. O presente estudo visa colaborar para esse debate. Os objetivos deste artigo são: discutir as definições contemporâneas de guerras civis; avaliar, criticamente, as bases quantitativas mais comuns nos estudos de política comparada e comentar sua adequação para as pesquisas sobre guerras civis e; por último, sugerir possíveis soluções metodológicas que poderiam ser utilizadas para analisar, com mais precisão, o impacto dos regimes no início das guerras civis.Downloads
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Referências
BECK, Thorsten et al. New tools in comparative political economy: the database of political institutions. World Bank Economic Review, Washington, v. 15, n. 1, p. 165-176, set. 2001.
BLATTMAN, Christopher; MIGUEL, Edward. Civil war. Journal of Economic Literature, Nashville, v. 48, n. 1, p. 3-57, mar. 2010.
CAREY, Sabine C. Rebellion in Africa: disaggregating the effect of political regimes. Journal of Peace Research, London, v. 44, n. 1, p. 47-64, jan. 2007.
COLLIER, Paul; HOEFFLER, Anke. Greed and grievance in civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford, v. 56, n. 4, p. 563-595, ago. 2004.
COLLIER, Paul; SAMBANIS, Nicholas (org.). Understanding civil war: evidence and analysis. Washington: World Bank Publications, 2005. v. 1.
DAHL, Robert. Poliarquia: participação e oposição. São Paulo: Universidade de São Paulo, 1997.
DIXON, Jeffrey. What causes civil wars? integrating quantitative research findings. International Studies Review, v. 11, n. 4, p. 707-735, dez. 2009.
FEARON, James. Civil war since 1945: some facts and a theory. In: ENCONTRO ANUAL DA ASSOCIAÇÃO AMERICANA DE CIÊNCIA POLÍTICA, 2005, Washington. Anais... Washington, 2005. p. 1-35.
FEARON, James; LAITIN, David. Ethnicity, insurgency and civil war. American Political Science Review, Baltimore, v. 97, n. 1, p. 75-90, feb. 2003.
FJELDE, Hanne. Generals, dictators and kings: authoritarian regimes and civil conflict, 1973-2004. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 27, n. 3, p. 195-218, jul. 2010.
FREEDOM HOUSE. Methodology. 2010.
GATES, Scott et al. Institutional inconsistency and political instability: polity duration, 1800-2000. American Journal of Political Science, Austin, v. 50, n. 4, p. 893-908, out. 2006.
GHOBARAH, Adam Hazen; HUTH, Paul; RUSSETT, Bruce. The post-war public health effects of civil conflict. Social Science and Medicine, v. 59, n. 4, p. 869-884, ago. 2004.
GLEDITSCH, Nils Petter et al. Armed conflict 1946-2001: a new dataset. Journal of Peace Research, London, v. 39, n. 5, p. 615-637, set. 2002.
GOERTZ, Gary. Social science concepts: a user's guide. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006.
HEGRE, Havard. Disentangling democracy and development as determinants of armed conflict. The World Bank, 9 jan. 2003.
HEGRE, Havard et al. Towards a democratic civil peace? democracy, political change and civil war, 1816-1992. American Political Science Review, Baltimore, v. 95, n. 1, p. 33-48, mar. 2001.
HEGRE, HÃ¥vard; SAMBANIS, Nicholas. Sensitivity analysis of empirical results on civil war onset. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Newbury Park, v. 50, n. 4, p. 508- 535, ago. 2006.
KALYVAS, Stathis. The logic of violence in civil war. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006.
KALYVAS, Stathis. Promises and Pirfalls of an emerging research program: the Microdynamics of civil war. In: KALYVAS, Stathis; SHAPIRO, Ian; MASOUD, Tarek (org.). Order, conflict and violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008. p. 397-421.
KALYVAS, Stathis; KOCHER, Matthew Adam. How 'Free' is Free Riding in Civil Wars? violence, insurgency, and the collective action problem. World Politics, v. 59, n. 2, p. 177-216, jan. 2007.
KEEFER, Philip. DPI2010: database of political institutions: changes and variable definitions. 2010.
LACINA, Bethany. From side show to centre stage: civil conflict after the cold war. Security Dialog, v. 35, n. 2, p. 191-205, jun. 2004.
LAKE, David; ROTHCHILD, Donald. Containing fear: the origins and management of ethnic conflict. International Security, Cambridge, v. 21, n. 2, p. 41-75, out. 1996.
MARSHALL, Monty G.; GURR, Ted; JAGGERS, Keith. Polity IV Project: dataset users' manual. Maryland: University of Maryland, 2009.
MUNCK, Gerardo; VERKUILEN, Jay. Conceptualizing and measuring democracy: evaluating alternative indices. Comparative Political Studies, Beverly Hills, v. 35, n. 1, p. 5-34, feb. 2002.
PAXTON, Pamela; BOLLEN, Kenneth; LEE, Deborah M.; KIM, HyoJoung. A HalfCentury of Suffrage: new data and a comparative analysis. Studies in Comparative International Development, Saint Louis, v. 38, n. 1, p. 93-122, 2003.
SAMBANIS, Nicholas. Using case studies to expand economic models of civil war. Perspectives on Politics, New York, v. 2, n. 2, p. 259-279, jul. 2004a.
SAMBANIS, Nicholas. What is civil war? conceptual and empirical complexities of an operational definition. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Newbury Park, v. 48, n. 6, p. 814-858, dez. 2004b.
SARKEES, Meredith Reid; SCHAFER, Phil. The correlates of war data on war: an update to 1997. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 18, n. 1, p. 123-144, feb. 2000.
STOHL, Michael et al. State violation of human rights: issues and problems of measurement. Humans Rights Quarterly, Baltimore, v. 8, n. 4, p. 592-606, nov. 1986.
STRAND, Havard. Reassessing the civil democratic peace. 2006.
STRAND, Havard. Retreating from a civil democratic peace? revisiting the relationship between political institutions and civil war. 2007.
UPPSALA CONFLICT DATA PROGRAM/PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO. Armed Conflict Dataset, 2009.
VANHANEN, Tatu. A new dataset for measuring democracy, 1810-1998. Journal of Peace Research, London, v. 37, n. 2, p. 251-265, mar. 2000.
VREELAND, James Raymond. The effect of political regime on civil war: unpacking anocracy. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Newbury Park, v. 52, n. 3, p. 401-425, jun. 2008.
WEGENAST, Tim. Inclusive Institutions and the Onset of Internal Conflict in Resource-rich Countries. GIGA Working Papers, Hamburgo, n. 126,p. 1-36, mar. 2010.
ZIMERMAN, Artur. Peguem a foice e vamos à luta: determinantes agrários da guerra civil. São Paulo: Humanitas, 2008.
ZIMERMAN, Artur; ALVES, Hélio Ricardo do Couto. Governmental repression and Likelihood of civil war onset: world analysis, 1981-19997. Revista de Ciência Política, Rio de Janeiro, v. 27, n. 2, p. 49-65, 2007.
BLATTMAN, Christopher; MIGUEL, Edward. Civil war. Journal of Economic Literature, Nashville, v. 48, n. 1, p. 3-57, mar. 2010.
CAREY, Sabine C. Rebellion in Africa: disaggregating the effect of political regimes. Journal of Peace Research, London, v. 44, n. 1, p. 47-64, jan. 2007.
COLLIER, Paul; HOEFFLER, Anke. Greed and grievance in civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford, v. 56, n. 4, p. 563-595, ago. 2004.
COLLIER, Paul; SAMBANIS, Nicholas (org.). Understanding civil war: evidence and analysis. Washington: World Bank Publications, 2005. v. 1.
DAHL, Robert. Poliarquia: participação e oposição. São Paulo: Universidade de São Paulo, 1997.
DIXON, Jeffrey. What causes civil wars? integrating quantitative research findings. International Studies Review, v. 11, n. 4, p. 707-735, dez. 2009.
FEARON, James. Civil war since 1945: some facts and a theory. In: ENCONTRO ANUAL DA ASSOCIAÇÃO AMERICANA DE CIÊNCIA POLÍTICA, 2005, Washington. Anais... Washington, 2005. p. 1-35.
FEARON, James; LAITIN, David. Ethnicity, insurgency and civil war. American Political Science Review, Baltimore, v. 97, n. 1, p. 75-90, feb. 2003.
FJELDE, Hanne. Generals, dictators and kings: authoritarian regimes and civil conflict, 1973-2004. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 27, n. 3, p. 195-218, jul. 2010.
FREEDOM HOUSE. Methodology. 2010.
GATES, Scott et al. Institutional inconsistency and political instability: polity duration, 1800-2000. American Journal of Political Science, Austin, v. 50, n. 4, p. 893-908, out. 2006.
GHOBARAH, Adam Hazen; HUTH, Paul; RUSSETT, Bruce. The post-war public health effects of civil conflict. Social Science and Medicine, v. 59, n. 4, p. 869-884, ago. 2004.
GLEDITSCH, Nils Petter et al. Armed conflict 1946-2001: a new dataset. Journal of Peace Research, London, v. 39, n. 5, p. 615-637, set. 2002.
GOERTZ, Gary. Social science concepts: a user's guide. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006.
HEGRE, Havard. Disentangling democracy and development as determinants of armed conflict. The World Bank, 9 jan. 2003.
HEGRE, Havard et al. Towards a democratic civil peace? democracy, political change and civil war, 1816-1992. American Political Science Review, Baltimore, v. 95, n. 1, p. 33-48, mar. 2001.
HEGRE, HÃ¥vard; SAMBANIS, Nicholas. Sensitivity analysis of empirical results on civil war onset. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Newbury Park, v. 50, n. 4, p. 508- 535, ago. 2006.
KALYVAS, Stathis. The logic of violence in civil war. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006.
KALYVAS, Stathis. Promises and Pirfalls of an emerging research program: the Microdynamics of civil war. In: KALYVAS, Stathis; SHAPIRO, Ian; MASOUD, Tarek (org.). Order, conflict and violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008. p. 397-421.
KALYVAS, Stathis; KOCHER, Matthew Adam. How 'Free' is Free Riding in Civil Wars? violence, insurgency, and the collective action problem. World Politics, v. 59, n. 2, p. 177-216, jan. 2007.
KEEFER, Philip. DPI2010: database of political institutions: changes and variable definitions. 2010.
LACINA, Bethany. From side show to centre stage: civil conflict after the cold war. Security Dialog, v. 35, n. 2, p. 191-205, jun. 2004.
LAKE, David; ROTHCHILD, Donald. Containing fear: the origins and management of ethnic conflict. International Security, Cambridge, v. 21, n. 2, p. 41-75, out. 1996.
MARSHALL, Monty G.; GURR, Ted; JAGGERS, Keith. Polity IV Project: dataset users' manual. Maryland: University of Maryland, 2009.
MUNCK, Gerardo; VERKUILEN, Jay. Conceptualizing and measuring democracy: evaluating alternative indices. Comparative Political Studies, Beverly Hills, v. 35, n. 1, p. 5-34, feb. 2002.
PAXTON, Pamela; BOLLEN, Kenneth; LEE, Deborah M.; KIM, HyoJoung. A HalfCentury of Suffrage: new data and a comparative analysis. Studies in Comparative International Development, Saint Louis, v. 38, n. 1, p. 93-122, 2003.
SAMBANIS, Nicholas. Using case studies to expand economic models of civil war. Perspectives on Politics, New York, v. 2, n. 2, p. 259-279, jul. 2004a.
SAMBANIS, Nicholas. What is civil war? conceptual and empirical complexities of an operational definition. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Newbury Park, v. 48, n. 6, p. 814-858, dez. 2004b.
SARKEES, Meredith Reid; SCHAFER, Phil. The correlates of war data on war: an update to 1997. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 18, n. 1, p. 123-144, feb. 2000.
STOHL, Michael et al. State violation of human rights: issues and problems of measurement. Humans Rights Quarterly, Baltimore, v. 8, n. 4, p. 592-606, nov. 1986.
STRAND, Havard. Reassessing the civil democratic peace. 2006.
STRAND, Havard. Retreating from a civil democratic peace? revisiting the relationship between political institutions and civil war. 2007.
UPPSALA CONFLICT DATA PROGRAM/PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO. Armed Conflict Dataset, 2009.
VANHANEN, Tatu. A new dataset for measuring democracy, 1810-1998. Journal of Peace Research, London, v. 37, n. 2, p. 251-265, mar. 2000.
VREELAND, James Raymond. The effect of political regime on civil war: unpacking anocracy. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Newbury Park, v. 52, n. 3, p. 401-425, jun. 2008.
WEGENAST, Tim. Inclusive Institutions and the Onset of Internal Conflict in Resource-rich Countries. GIGA Working Papers, Hamburgo, n. 126,p. 1-36, mar. 2010.
ZIMERMAN, Artur. Peguem a foice e vamos à luta: determinantes agrários da guerra civil. São Paulo: Humanitas, 2008.
ZIMERMAN, Artur; ALVES, Hélio Ricardo do Couto. Governmental repression and Likelihood of civil war onset: world analysis, 1981-19997. Revista de Ciência Política, Rio de Janeiro, v. 27, n. 2, p. 49-65, 2007.
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2012-03-18
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FREIRE, Danilo. Os regimes políticos e as guerras civis: uma discussão metodológica. Mediações - Revista de Ciências Sociais, Londrina, v. 17, n. 1, p. 235–252, 2012. DOI: 10.5433/2176-6665.2012v17n1p235. Disponível em: https://ojs.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/mediacoes/article/view/2012.v17n1p235. Acesso em: 9 dez. 2025.
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