Assigning risks and criminalizing poor and non-white: determining risk factors in 24 actuarial tools for the US criminal justice system
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/2176-6665.2021v26n3p659Keywords:
Risk assessment, Actuarial tools, United States, Criminal justice systemAbstract
In the USA, from the 1920s actuarial tools are used in the evaluation of parole applications, to predict or estimate the possible recurrence of applicants. Since then, they have been used to better manage the population under correctional control by calculating the risk of recidivism or failure to appear, based on factors such as criminal history, age, marital status, sex, and behavior, based on criminological theories and machine learning techniques. These tools are based on the forms application and the choice of their questions influences the definition of risk factors. Currently, there are more than 400 tools in use in the distinct stages of the US Criminal Justice System, across state, national and county jurisdictions, after increasing criticism of bail system and the biases of criminal justice operators. This article analyzes forms from 24 tools used by U.S. jurisdictions. The main results are that the tools have focused on a specific type of suspect – poor and black people – since their conception, even though companies and government agencies argue that they are neutral and objective.Metrics
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References
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DELAWARE. Pretrial Assessment Tool. 2020. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Delaware-DELPAT.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
DESMARAIS, Sarah L.; SINGH, Jay P. Risk Assessment Instruments Validated and Implemented in correctional settings in the United States. Lexington, KY: Council of State Governments, 2013.
DIETER, Maurício S. Política criminal atuarial: a criminologia no fim da história. 2012. 309 f. Tese (Doutorado em Direito) — Faculdade de Direito, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, 2012.
ENNS, Peter K.; YI, Youngmin; COMFORT, Megan; GOLDMAN, Alyssa W.; LEE, Hedwig; MULLER, Christopher; WAKEFIELD, Sara; WANG, Emily A.; WILDEMAN, Christopher. What percentage of Americans have ever had a family member incarcerated? Evidence from the family history of incarceration survey (Fam HIS). Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World, Thousand Oaks, CA, v. 5, p. 1–45, 2019.
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FLORIDA. Pretrial Misconduct Risk Assessment Instrument: Instructions for Completion and Scoring. [2011]. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/FL-Pretrial-Tool-Scoring-Instruction.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
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HOMEOWNERSHIP rates show that Black Americans are currently the least likely group to own homes. USA Facts, Riverside, CA, 28 July, 2020. Disponível em: https://usafacts.org/articles/homeownership-rates-by-race/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
HOROWITZ, Jake; UTADA, Connie. Community supervision marked by racial and gender disparities. The Pew Charitable Trusts, Philadelphia, 6 Dec. 2018. Disponível em: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2018/12/06/community-supervision-marked-by-racialand-gender-disparities. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
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INDIANA RISK ASSESSMENT SYSTEM. Policy for Indiana risk assessment system. Cincinnati, OH: University of Cincinnati, 2010. Disponível em: https://biblioteca.cejamericas.org/bitstream/handle/2015/4638/Indiana_Risk_Assessment_System_2010.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION SCIENCES. National Center for Education Statistics. Digest of Education Statistics. Table 219.70. Percentage of high school dropouts among persons 16 to 24 years old (status dropout rate), by sex and race/ethnicity: Selected years, 1960 through 2019. Washington, DC: NCES, 2020. Disponível em: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_219.70.asp. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
LAFRNS: Lafayette Risk Needs Screening Form, 2016. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Lafayette-Pretrial-Risk-Assessments.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
MAPPING PRETRIAL INJUSTICE. What are risk assessment tools? Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
MINNESOTA Pretrial Release Evaluation Form and Assessment Tool (MNPAT) Bench Card. Disponível em: https://www.mncourts.gov/mncourtsgov/media/Pretrial-Release/Minnesota-Pretrial-Release-Evaluation-Form-and-Assessment-Tool-(MNPAT).pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
MISSISSIPI. Center For Justice. Department of Corrections. Risk and needs -questionnaire scoring guide. Mississippi: The Crime and Justice Institute at CRJ, 2016. Disponível em: https://epic.org/EPIC-19-11-25-MS-FOIA-20200124-CRJ-Risk-and-Needs-Scoring-Guide(2016).pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
MISSOURI Pretrial Services Risk Assessment Jasper County. 2020. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Jasper-MO_Old-Eval.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
NELLIS, Ashley. The color of justice: racial and ethnic disparity in state prisons. Sentencing Project. 2016. Disponível em: https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/color-of-justice-racial-and-ethnic-disparity-in-state-prisons/. Acesso em: 15 mar. 2021.
NEVADA Pretrial risk (npr) assessment. Disponível em: https://nvcourts.gov/AOC/Committees_and_Commissions/Evidence/Documents/Committee_Materials/NPR_Assessment_FINAL/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
OHIO Risk Assessment System: Pre-Trial Tool (PAT). 2014. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ORAS-PAT-8-20152.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
PARKER, Kim; HOROWITZ, Juliana; MAHL, Brian. On views of race and inequality, blacks and whites are worlds apart. 2016. Disponível em: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2016/06/ST_2016.06.27_Race-Inequality-Final.pdf. Acesso em: 15 mar. 2021.
POPULATION management intake form, Prince George County. 2017. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Prince-George-MD-Tool.pdf..Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
PRETRIAL Services Risk Assessment Jasper County. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Jasper-MO_New-Eval.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
REPORT to the United Nations on racial disparities in the U.S. criminal justice system. The Sentencing Project, Washington, DC, 19 Apr. 2018. Disponível em: https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/un-report-on-racial-disparities/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
SAMPLE compas core. Risk Assessment. Document. Disponível em: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2702103-Sample-Risk-Assessment-COMPAS-CORE.html. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
SAWYER, Wendy; WAGNER, Peter. Mass incarceration: the whole pie 2020. Prison Policy Initiative, Northampton, MA, 24 Mar. 2020. Reports. Disponível em: https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2020.html. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
SEGREGATION in America. The Economist, London, 4 Apr. 2018. Disponível em: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/04/04/segregation-in-america. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
STRAFFORD County community corrections: pretrial assessment. 2020. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Strafford-Condado-Assessment-Intake.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
UNITED STATES. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force characteristics by race and ethnicity, 2019. Washington, DC: Division of Information and Marketing Services, Dec. 2020. Report 1088. Disponível em: https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/race-and-ethnicity/2019/home.htm. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN. Michigan Population Studies Center. Institute for Social Research. New racial segregation measures for large metropolitan areas: analysis of the 1990-2010 decennial censuses. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, 2020. Disponível em: https://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/dis/census/segregation2010.html. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
VIRGINIA. Department of Criminal Justice Services. Virginia Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument (VPRAI). Richmond, VA: Department of Criminal Justice Services, 2009. VPRAI Instruction Manual, version 1.2. Disponível em: https://www.dcjs.virginia.gov/sites/dcjs.virginia.gov/files/publications/corrections/virginia-pretrial-risk-assessment-instrument-vprai.pdf. Acesso em:17 dez. 2020.
WALKLATE, Sandra; MYTHEN, Gabe. Beyond risk theory: experiential knowledge and knowing otherwise. Criminology & Criminal Justice, Thousand Oaks, CA, v. 11, n. 2, p. 99–103, 2011.
WILLIAMS, Aaron; EMAMDJOMEH, Armand. America is more diverse than ever — but still segregated. Washington Post, Washington, 10 May 2018. Disponível em: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/segregation-us-cities/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
WILSON, Valerie. Racial disparities in income and poverty remain largely unchanged amid strong income growth in 2019. In: ECONOMIC POLICY INSTITUTE. Working economics blog, Washington, DC, 16 Sept. 2020. Disponível em: https://www.epi.org/blog/racial-disparities-in-income-and-poverty-remain-largely-unchanged-amid-strong-income-growth-in-2019/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
ALLEGHENY County pretrial risk assessment-weights and scales (part 1 of 2): failure to appear. 2016a. Disponível em: http://www.ccappoap.com/images/Pretrial2016_Risk_Assessment_FTA_WeightScale_Reval_Complete.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
ARAPAHOE County Judicial Services – Pretrial Release. 2015. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Arapahoe-CO-Point-System-2015.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
BENJAMIN, Ruha. Race After technology: abolitionist tools for the New Jim Code. Cambridge: Polity Press, 2019.
BERNSTEIN, Peter L. Against the Gods: the remarkable story of risks. New York: John Wiley Sons, 1998.
CANYON County Sheriff’s Office Pretrial Risk Assessment. 2017. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Canyon-Condado-ID-Modified-VPRAI.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
CASS - COUNTY PRETRIAL EVALUATION. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Cass-County-Pretrial-Form.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
COLORADO ASSOCIATION OF PRETRIAL SERVICES. The Colorado Pretrial Assessment Tool (CPAT). Manual Version 2.1. - Administration, Scoring, and Reporting. Denver, CO: CAPS, 2015. Disponível em: http://capscolorado.org/yahoo_site_admin/assets/docs/CPAT_Manual_V21_06-29-2015.179175025.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
DELAWARE. Pretrial Assessment Tool. 2020. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Delaware-DELPAT.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
DESMARAIS, Sarah L.; SINGH, Jay P. Risk Assessment Instruments Validated and Implemented in correctional settings in the United States. Lexington, KY: Council of State Governments, 2013.
DIETER, Maurício S. Política criminal atuarial: a criminologia no fim da história. 2012. 309 f. Tese (Doutorado em Direito) — Faculdade de Direito, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, 2012.
ENNS, Peter K.; YI, Youngmin; COMFORT, Megan; GOLDMAN, Alyssa W.; LEE, Hedwig; MULLER, Christopher; WAKEFIELD, Sara; WANG, Emily A.; WILDEMAN, Christopher. What percentage of Americans have ever had a family member incarcerated? Evidence from the family history of incarceration survey (Fam HIS). Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World, Thousand Oaks, CA, v. 5, p. 1–45, 2019.
EPIC - Electronic Privacy Information Center. AI in the Criminal Justice System. Washington, DC: EPIC, 2020. Disponível em: https://epic.org/issues/ai/ai-in-the-criminal-justice-system/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
FLORIDA. Pretrial Misconduct Risk Assessment Instrument: Instructions for Completion and Scoring. [2011]. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/FL-Pretrial-Tool-Scoring-Instruction.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
GREEN, Ben. The false promise of risk assessments: epistemic reform and the limits of fairness. In: ACM FAT - CONFERENCE ON FAIRNESS, ACCOUNTABILITY, AND TRANSPARENCY, 30th, Barcelona, Spain, 2020. Proceedings […]. Barcelona: ACM, 2020. p. 1–13.
HACKING, Ian. The taming of chance. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990.
HARCOURT, Bernard E. Risk as a proxy for race: the dangers of risk assessment. Federal Sentencing Reporter, California, v. 27, n. 4, p. 237–243, 2015.
HARCOURT, Bernard E. The shaping of chance: actuarial models and criminal profiling at the turn of the twenty-first century. The University of Chicago Law Review, Chicago, ILL, v. 70, n. 1, p. 105–128, 2003.
HOMEOWNERSHIP rates show that Black Americans are currently the least likely group to own homes. USA Facts, Riverside, CA, 28 July, 2020. Disponível em: https://usafacts.org/articles/homeownership-rates-by-race/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
HOROWITZ, Jake; UTADA, Connie. Community supervision marked by racial and gender disparities. The Pew Charitable Trusts, Philadelphia, 6 Dec. 2018. Disponível em: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2018/12/06/community-supervision-marked-by-racialand-gender-disparities. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
IDAHO LSI-R scoring guide. Version 3.0 April 2015/WPR. Disponível em: https://epic.org/EPIC-19-11-21-ID-FOIA-20191206-ID-lsi-scoring-guide.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
INDIANA RISK ASSESSMENT SYSTEM. Policy for Indiana risk assessment system. Cincinnati, OH: University of Cincinnati, 2010. Disponível em: https://biblioteca.cejamericas.org/bitstream/handle/2015/4638/Indiana_Risk_Assessment_System_2010.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION SCIENCES. National Center for Education Statistics. Digest of Education Statistics. Table 219.70. Percentage of high school dropouts among persons 16 to 24 years old (status dropout rate), by sex and race/ethnicity: Selected years, 1960 through 2019. Washington, DC: NCES, 2020. Disponível em: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_219.70.asp. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
LAFRNS: Lafayette Risk Needs Screening Form, 2016. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Lafayette-Pretrial-Risk-Assessments.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
MAPPING PRETRIAL INJUSTICE. What are risk assessment tools? Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
MINNESOTA Pretrial Release Evaluation Form and Assessment Tool (MNPAT) Bench Card. Disponível em: https://www.mncourts.gov/mncourtsgov/media/Pretrial-Release/Minnesota-Pretrial-Release-Evaluation-Form-and-Assessment-Tool-(MNPAT).pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
MISSISSIPI. Center For Justice. Department of Corrections. Risk and needs -questionnaire scoring guide. Mississippi: The Crime and Justice Institute at CRJ, 2016. Disponível em: https://epic.org/EPIC-19-11-25-MS-FOIA-20200124-CRJ-Risk-and-Needs-Scoring-Guide(2016).pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
MISSOURI Pretrial Services Risk Assessment Jasper County. 2020. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Jasper-MO_Old-Eval.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
NELLIS, Ashley. The color of justice: racial and ethnic disparity in state prisons. Sentencing Project. 2016. Disponível em: https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/color-of-justice-racial-and-ethnic-disparity-in-state-prisons/. Acesso em: 15 mar. 2021.
NEVADA Pretrial risk (npr) assessment. Disponível em: https://nvcourts.gov/AOC/Committees_and_Commissions/Evidence/Documents/Committee_Materials/NPR_Assessment_FINAL/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
OHIO Risk Assessment System: Pre-Trial Tool (PAT). 2014. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ORAS-PAT-8-20152.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
PARKER, Kim; HOROWITZ, Juliana; MAHL, Brian. On views of race and inequality, blacks and whites are worlds apart. 2016. Disponível em: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2016/06/ST_2016.06.27_Race-Inequality-Final.pdf. Acesso em: 15 mar. 2021.
POPULATION management intake form, Prince George County. 2017. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Prince-George-MD-Tool.pdf..Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
PRETRIAL Services Risk Assessment Jasper County. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Jasper-MO_New-Eval.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
REPORT to the United Nations on racial disparities in the U.S. criminal justice system. The Sentencing Project, Washington, DC, 19 Apr. 2018. Disponível em: https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/un-report-on-racial-disparities/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
SAMPLE compas core. Risk Assessment. Document. Disponível em: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2702103-Sample-Risk-Assessment-COMPAS-CORE.html. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
SAWYER, Wendy; WAGNER, Peter. Mass incarceration: the whole pie 2020. Prison Policy Initiative, Northampton, MA, 24 Mar. 2020. Reports. Disponível em: https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2020.html. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
SEGREGATION in America. The Economist, London, 4 Apr. 2018. Disponível em: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/04/04/segregation-in-america. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
STRAFFORD County community corrections: pretrial assessment. 2020. Disponível em: https://pretrialrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Strafford-Condado-Assessment-Intake.pdf. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
UNITED STATES. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force characteristics by race and ethnicity, 2019. Washington, DC: Division of Information and Marketing Services, Dec. 2020. Report 1088. Disponível em: https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/race-and-ethnicity/2019/home.htm. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN. Michigan Population Studies Center. Institute for Social Research. New racial segregation measures for large metropolitan areas: analysis of the 1990-2010 decennial censuses. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, 2020. Disponível em: https://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/dis/census/segregation2010.html. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
VIRGINIA. Department of Criminal Justice Services. Virginia Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument (VPRAI). Richmond, VA: Department of Criminal Justice Services, 2009. VPRAI Instruction Manual, version 1.2. Disponível em: https://www.dcjs.virginia.gov/sites/dcjs.virginia.gov/files/publications/corrections/virginia-pretrial-risk-assessment-instrument-vprai.pdf. Acesso em:17 dez. 2020.
WALKLATE, Sandra; MYTHEN, Gabe. Beyond risk theory: experiential knowledge and knowing otherwise. Criminology & Criminal Justice, Thousand Oaks, CA, v. 11, n. 2, p. 99–103, 2011.
WILLIAMS, Aaron; EMAMDJOMEH, Armand. America is more diverse than ever — but still segregated. Washington Post, Washington, 10 May 2018. Disponível em: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/segregation-us-cities/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
WILSON, Valerie. Racial disparities in income and poverty remain largely unchanged amid strong income growth in 2019. In: ECONOMIC POLICY INSTITUTE. Working economics blog, Washington, DC, 16 Sept. 2020. Disponível em: https://www.epi.org/blog/racial-disparities-in-income-and-poverty-remain-largely-unchanged-amid-strong-income-growth-in-2019/. Acesso em: 17 dez. 2020.
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2021-12-30
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PASSOS, I. C. Assigning risks and criminalizing poor and non-white: determining risk factors in 24 actuarial tools for the US criminal justice system. Mediações - Revista de Ciências Sociais, Londrina, v. 26, n. 3, p. 659–678, 2021. DOI: 10.5433/2176-6665.2021v26n3p659. Disponível em: https://ojs.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/mediacoes/article/view/42943. Acesso em: 14 may. 2024.
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