Causalidade e mecanismos em ciência política
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/2176-6665.2013v18n2p10Palavras-chave:
Causalidade, Mecanismos, Inferência, Desenho de pesquisaResumo
Esse artigo defende que os desenhos de empíricos de pesquisa em Ciência Política devem ser formatados com o objetivo de produzir inferências causais falsificáveis. Inferir no sentido de utilizar informações disponíveis para apresentar conclusões a respeito de informações indisponíveis. Causais de modo que a ocorrência de altere a probabilidade de ocorrência de. E falsificáveis no sentido de que a inferência pode ser demonstrada falsa por um desenho de pesquisa concorrente. Além disso, as explicações devem identificar o mecanismo causal que conecta variável dependente e variável independente.Referências
BLALOCK, Hubert M. Causal inferences, closed populations, and measures of association. American Political Science Review, Baltimore, v. 61, n. 1, p. 130-136, 1967.
BRADY, Henry; COLLIER, David (Org.). Rethinking social inquiry: diverse tools, shared standards. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2004.
BRAMBOR, Thomas; CLARK, William R.; GOLDER Matt. Understanding interaction models: Improving empirical analyses. Political Analysis, Oxford, v. 14, n. 1, p. 63-82, 2006.
BUNGE, Mario. Mechanism and explanation. Philosophy of the Social Science, New York, v. 27, n. 4, p. 410-465, 1997.
CAMPBELL, Donald; STANELY, Julian. Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for research. Chicago, Illinois: Rand McNally, 1996.
DEAN, Angela M.; VOSS, Daniel. Design and analysis of experiments. New York: Springer, 1999.
DELLA PORTA, Donatella; KEATING, Michael (Ed.). Approaches and methodologies in the social sciences: a pluralist perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008.
ELSTER, Jon. Nuts and bolts for the social sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989.
FIGUEIREDO FILHO, Dalson; SILVA JUNIOR, José Alexandre; ROCHA, E. O que fazer e o que não fazer com a regressão: pressupostos e aplicações do modelo linear de mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO). Política Hoje, Recife, v. 20, n. 1, 44-99, 2011.
FRIEDRICH, Robert J. In defense of multiplicative terms in multiple regression equations. American Journal of Political Science, Austin, v. 26, n. 4, p. 797-833, 1982.
GERRING, John. Social science methodology: a criterial framework. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
GERRING, John. Causation: a unified framework for the Social Sciences. Journal of Theoretical Politics, London, v.17, n. 2, p.163-98, 2005.
HEDSTRÖM, Peter; SWEDBERG, Richard. Social mechanisms: an introductory essay. In: HEDSTRÖM, Peter; SWEDBERG, Richard. Social mechanisms: an analytical approach to social theory. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998.
HOLLAND, Paul. Statistics and causal inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Baltimore, v. 81, p. 945-60, 1986.
JACCARD, James; TURRISI, Robert; WAN, Choi. Interaction efects in multiple regression. Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990.
KING, Gary; KEOHANE, Robert; VERBA, Sidney. Designing social inquiry: scientific inference in qualitative research. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994.
KITSCHELT, Hebert. Accounting for postcommunist regime diversity: what counts as a good cause? In: EKIERT, Grzegorz; HANSON, Stephen E. (Ed.). Capitalism and democracy in central and eastern europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003. p. 49-86.
KUHH, Thomas. A estrutura das revoluções científicas. 3. ed. São Paulo: Perspectiva, 1975.
MAHONEY, James. Path-Dependent explanations of regime change: Central America in comparative perspective. Studies in Comparative International Development, Sant Louis, v. 36, p. 111–141, 2001.
MARSH, David; FURLONG, Paul. A skin not a sweater: ontology and epistemology in political science. In: MARSH, David; STOKER, Gerry. (Ed.). Theory and methods in political science. Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2002. p. 17-44.
MERTON, R. Social theory and social structure. NewYork: The Free Press, 1968.
MONTGOMERY, Douglas. Design and analysis of experiments. 5 th edn. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2001.
PEARL, Judea. Causality: models, reasoning, and inference. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
RATTON JUNIOR, Jose Luiz; MORAIS, Jorge Ventura de. Para ler Jon Elster: limites e possibilidades da explicação por mecanismos nas Ciências Sociais. DADOS – Revista de Ciências Sociais, Rio de Janeiro, v. 46, n. 2, p. 385-410, 2003.
RUBIN, Donald B. Estimating causal efects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies. Journal of Educational Psychology, Arlington, v. 66, n. 5, p. 688-701, 1974.
SALMON, Wesley. Scientific explanation: three basic conceptions. Proceedings of the biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association. Symposia and Invited Papers, Chicago, v. 2, p. 293-305, 1984.
SANDERS, David. Behaviouralism. In: MARSH, David; STOKER, Gerry (Ed.). Theory and methods in political science. Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2002. p. 45–64.
SHADISH, R.; COOK, T.; CAMPBELL. Experimental and quasi-experimental Designs of generalized causal inference. New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2002.
STINCHCOMBE, Arthur. The conditions of fruitfulness of theorizing about mechanisms in Social Science. Philosophy of the Social Sciences, Waterloo, v. 21, n. 3, p. 367-388, 1991.
TILLY, Charles. Mechanisms in political process. Annual Review of Political Science, Palo Alto, v. 4, p. 21-41, 2001.
VAN EVERA, Stephen. Guide to methods for students of political science. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997.
ZALD, Mayer N. Progress and cumulation in the human sciences after the fall. Sociological Forum, New York, v. 10, n. 3, p. 455-479, 1995.
BRADY, Henry; COLLIER, David (Org.). Rethinking social inquiry: diverse tools, shared standards. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2004.
BRAMBOR, Thomas; CLARK, William R.; GOLDER Matt. Understanding interaction models: Improving empirical analyses. Political Analysis, Oxford, v. 14, n. 1, p. 63-82, 2006.
BUNGE, Mario. Mechanism and explanation. Philosophy of the Social Science, New York, v. 27, n. 4, p. 410-465, 1997.
CAMPBELL, Donald; STANELY, Julian. Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for research. Chicago, Illinois: Rand McNally, 1996.
DEAN, Angela M.; VOSS, Daniel. Design and analysis of experiments. New York: Springer, 1999.
DELLA PORTA, Donatella; KEATING, Michael (Ed.). Approaches and methodologies in the social sciences: a pluralist perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008.
ELSTER, Jon. Nuts and bolts for the social sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989.
FIGUEIREDO FILHO, Dalson; SILVA JUNIOR, José Alexandre; ROCHA, E. O que fazer e o que não fazer com a regressão: pressupostos e aplicações do modelo linear de mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO). Política Hoje, Recife, v. 20, n. 1, 44-99, 2011.
FRIEDRICH, Robert J. In defense of multiplicative terms in multiple regression equations. American Journal of Political Science, Austin, v. 26, n. 4, p. 797-833, 1982.
GERRING, John. Social science methodology: a criterial framework. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
GERRING, John. Causation: a unified framework for the Social Sciences. Journal of Theoretical Politics, London, v.17, n. 2, p.163-98, 2005.
HEDSTRÖM, Peter; SWEDBERG, Richard. Social mechanisms: an introductory essay. In: HEDSTRÖM, Peter; SWEDBERG, Richard. Social mechanisms: an analytical approach to social theory. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998.
HOLLAND, Paul. Statistics and causal inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Baltimore, v. 81, p. 945-60, 1986.
JACCARD, James; TURRISI, Robert; WAN, Choi. Interaction efects in multiple regression. Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990.
KING, Gary; KEOHANE, Robert; VERBA, Sidney. Designing social inquiry: scientific inference in qualitative research. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994.
KITSCHELT, Hebert. Accounting for postcommunist regime diversity: what counts as a good cause? In: EKIERT, Grzegorz; HANSON, Stephen E. (Ed.). Capitalism and democracy in central and eastern europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003. p. 49-86.
KUHH, Thomas. A estrutura das revoluções científicas. 3. ed. São Paulo: Perspectiva, 1975.
MAHONEY, James. Path-Dependent explanations of regime change: Central America in comparative perspective. Studies in Comparative International Development, Sant Louis, v. 36, p. 111–141, 2001.
MARSH, David; FURLONG, Paul. A skin not a sweater: ontology and epistemology in political science. In: MARSH, David; STOKER, Gerry. (Ed.). Theory and methods in political science. Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2002. p. 17-44.
MERTON, R. Social theory and social structure. NewYork: The Free Press, 1968.
MONTGOMERY, Douglas. Design and analysis of experiments. 5 th edn. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2001.
PEARL, Judea. Causality: models, reasoning, and inference. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
RATTON JUNIOR, Jose Luiz; MORAIS, Jorge Ventura de. Para ler Jon Elster: limites e possibilidades da explicação por mecanismos nas Ciências Sociais. DADOS – Revista de Ciências Sociais, Rio de Janeiro, v. 46, n. 2, p. 385-410, 2003.
RUBIN, Donald B. Estimating causal efects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies. Journal of Educational Psychology, Arlington, v. 66, n. 5, p. 688-701, 1974.
SALMON, Wesley. Scientific explanation: three basic conceptions. Proceedings of the biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association. Symposia and Invited Papers, Chicago, v. 2, p. 293-305, 1984.
SANDERS, David. Behaviouralism. In: MARSH, David; STOKER, Gerry (Ed.). Theory and methods in political science. Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2002. p. 45–64.
SHADISH, R.; COOK, T.; CAMPBELL. Experimental and quasi-experimental Designs of generalized causal inference. New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2002.
STINCHCOMBE, Arthur. The conditions of fruitfulness of theorizing about mechanisms in Social Science. Philosophy of the Social Sciences, Waterloo, v. 21, n. 3, p. 367-388, 1991.
TILLY, Charles. Mechanisms in political process. Annual Review of Political Science, Palo Alto, v. 4, p. 21-41, 2001.
VAN EVERA, Stephen. Guide to methods for students of political science. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997.
ZALD, Mayer N. Progress and cumulation in the human sciences after the fall. Sociological Forum, New York, v. 10, n. 3, p. 455-479, 1995.
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2013-12-30
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BRITTO FIGUEIREDO FILHO, Dalson; ROCHA, Enivaldo Carvalho da; SILVA JÚNIOR, José Alexandre da; PARANHOS, Ranulfo. Causalidade e mecanismos em ciência política. Mediações - Revista de Ciências Sociais, Londrina, v. 18, n. 2, p. 10–27, 2013. DOI: 10.5433/2176-6665.2013v18n2p10. Disponível em: https://ojs.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/mediacoes/article/view/17664. Acesso em: 30 jun. 2024.
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