A real dinâmica da pandemia COVID-19 no Catar em 2021: simulações, previsões e verificações do modelo SIR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp55Palavras-chave:
Pandemia do COVID-19, Eficácia da vacinação, Dinâmica da epidemia no Qatar, Modelo SIR, Identificação de parâmetrosResumo
A terceira onda pandêmica de COVID-19 no Catar foi simulada com o uso do modelo SIR generalizado e os dados acumulados de casos relatados pela Universidade Johns Hopkins para o período: 25 de abril a 8 de maio de 2021. Os resultados foram comparados com as simulações SIR realizadas anteriormente para a segunda onda e o número de casos confirmados em laboratório no primeiro semestre de 2021. Apesar da vacinação em massa que começou em dezembro de 2020, o Catar experimentou uma nova onda epidêmica em março-abril de 2021. No final de junho de 2021, os efeitos positivos da vacinação ainda não eram claros, embora o número de vacinados completos já se aproximasse da metade da população. Simulações adicionais demonstraram que muitos casos COVID-19 não são detectados. O número real de casos acumulados no Catar pode ultrapassar aquele confirmado em laboratório em mais de 5 vezes. Esse fato aumenta drasticamente a probabilidade de encontro com uma pessoa infectada e a duração da epidemia.Referências
FAHMAYA, A. E.; EL-DESOUKYA, M. M.; MOHAMED, A. S. A. Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia using the generalized seir model. MedRxiv, New Haven, p. 1-19, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.19.20178129.
GHANAM, R.; BOONE, E.; ABDEL-SALAM, A.-S. G. Seird model for Qatar Covid-19 outbreak: a case study. Letters in Biomathematics, Illinois, p. 1-10, 2020. Preprint. Available from: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12777.pdf. Access in: June, 24 2021.
KERMACK, W. O.; MCKENDRICK, A. G. A Contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the royal society of London, series A., London, v. 115, p. 700-721, 1927.
KOTTASOVÁ, I.; ETZLER, T. Slovakia tested most of the country in two days. Here’s how they did it and what they found. CNN, Atlanta, 2020. Available from: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/02/europe/slovakia-mass-coronavirus-test-intl/index.html. Access in: 2 nov. 2020.
LANGEMANN, D.; NESTERUK, I.; PRESTIN, J. Comparison of mathematical models for the dynamics of the Chernivtsi children disease. Mathematics in computers and simulation, [London], v. 123, p. 68-79, 2016. DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2016.01.003. Access in: June, 24 2021.
MURRAY J. D. Mathematical biology I/II. New York:Springer, 2002.
NESTERUK, I. Visible and real sizes of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine. Innov Biosyst Bioeng, Kyiv, v. 5, n. 2, p. 85–96, 2021a. DOI: 10.20535/ibb.2021.5.2.230487.
NESTERUK, I. COVID19 pandemic dynamics. Singapore: Springer Nature, 2021b. DOI 10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5.
NESTERUK, I. Procedures of parameter identification for the waves of epidemics. In: NESTERUK, I. COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics. Singapore: Springer Nature, 2021c. p. 133-139. DOI 10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_10.
NESTERUK, I. Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations. In: NESTERUK, I. COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics. Singapore: Springer Nature, 2021d. p. 23-32. DOI 10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_4.
NESTERUK, I.; BENLAGHA, N. Predictions of Covid-19 pandemic dynamics in Ukraine and Qatar based on generalized sir model. Innov Biosyst Bioeng, Kyiv, v. 5, n. 1, p. 37–46, 2021. DOI 10.20535/ibb.2021.5.1.228605.
NOVAK, T. An experiment with mass testing for COVID-19 was conducted in Khmelnytsky (in Ukrainian). Podillya NEWS, Kiev, 2021. Available from: https://podillyanews.com/2020/12/17/u-shkolah-hmelnytskogo-provely-eksperyment-z-estuvannyam-na-covid-19/. Access in: June, 24 2021.
OUR WORLD IN DATA. COVID-19 Dataset by Our World in Data, 2021. Available from: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data. Access in: June, 24 2021.
SLOVAKIA’S second round of coronavirus tests draws large crowds. Voa, Lang, 2020. Available from: https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/slovakias-second-round-coronavirus-tests-draws-large-crowds. Access in: 7 nov. 2020.
WEINBERGER, D. M., COHEN, T., CRAWFORD, F. W., MOSTASHARI, F., OLSON, D., PITZER, V. E., REICH, N., G., RUSSI, M., SIMONSEN, L., WATKINS, A., VIBOUD, C. Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States. MedRxiv, New Haven, p. 1-28, 2020. Preprint. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066431.
WHO - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) weekly epidemiological update and weekly operational update. Geneva: WHO, 2019. Available from: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/. Access in: June, 24 2021.
ZHEN, L. Coronavirus: ‘strange pneumonia’ seen in Lombardy in November, leading Italian doctor says. South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 22 mar. 2020. Available from: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076334/coronavirus-strange-pneumonia-seen-lombardy-november-leading. Access in: June, 24 2021.
GHANAM, R.; BOONE, E.; ABDEL-SALAM, A.-S. G. Seird model for Qatar Covid-19 outbreak: a case study. Letters in Biomathematics, Illinois, p. 1-10, 2020. Preprint. Available from: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12777.pdf. Access in: June, 24 2021.
KERMACK, W. O.; MCKENDRICK, A. G. A Contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the royal society of London, series A., London, v. 115, p. 700-721, 1927.
KOTTASOVÁ, I.; ETZLER, T. Slovakia tested most of the country in two days. Here’s how they did it and what they found. CNN, Atlanta, 2020. Available from: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/02/europe/slovakia-mass-coronavirus-test-intl/index.html. Access in: 2 nov. 2020.
LANGEMANN, D.; NESTERUK, I.; PRESTIN, J. Comparison of mathematical models for the dynamics of the Chernivtsi children disease. Mathematics in computers and simulation, [London], v. 123, p. 68-79, 2016. DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2016.01.003. Access in: June, 24 2021.
MURRAY J. D. Mathematical biology I/II. New York:Springer, 2002.
NESTERUK, I. Visible and real sizes of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine. Innov Biosyst Bioeng, Kyiv, v. 5, n. 2, p. 85–96, 2021a. DOI: 10.20535/ibb.2021.5.2.230487.
NESTERUK, I. COVID19 pandemic dynamics. Singapore: Springer Nature, 2021b. DOI 10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5.
NESTERUK, I. Procedures of parameter identification for the waves of epidemics. In: NESTERUK, I. COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics. Singapore: Springer Nature, 2021c. p. 133-139. DOI 10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_10.
NESTERUK, I. Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations. In: NESTERUK, I. COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics. Singapore: Springer Nature, 2021d. p. 23-32. DOI 10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_4.
NESTERUK, I.; BENLAGHA, N. Predictions of Covid-19 pandemic dynamics in Ukraine and Qatar based on generalized sir model. Innov Biosyst Bioeng, Kyiv, v. 5, n. 1, p. 37–46, 2021. DOI 10.20535/ibb.2021.5.1.228605.
NOVAK, T. An experiment with mass testing for COVID-19 was conducted in Khmelnytsky (in Ukrainian). Podillya NEWS, Kiev, 2021. Available from: https://podillyanews.com/2020/12/17/u-shkolah-hmelnytskogo-provely-eksperyment-z-estuvannyam-na-covid-19/. Access in: June, 24 2021.
OUR WORLD IN DATA. COVID-19 Dataset by Our World in Data, 2021. Available from: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data. Access in: June, 24 2021.
SLOVAKIA’S second round of coronavirus tests draws large crowds. Voa, Lang, 2020. Available from: https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/slovakias-second-round-coronavirus-tests-draws-large-crowds. Access in: 7 nov. 2020.
WEINBERGER, D. M., COHEN, T., CRAWFORD, F. W., MOSTASHARI, F., OLSON, D., PITZER, V. E., REICH, N., G., RUSSI, M., SIMONSEN, L., WATKINS, A., VIBOUD, C. Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States. MedRxiv, New Haven, p. 1-28, 2020. Preprint. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066431.
WHO - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) weekly epidemiological update and weekly operational update. Geneva: WHO, 2019. Available from: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/. Access in: June, 24 2021.
ZHEN, L. Coronavirus: ‘strange pneumonia’ seen in Lombardy in November, leading Italian doctor says. South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 22 mar. 2020. Available from: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076334/coronavirus-strange-pneumonia-seen-lombardy-november-leading. Access in: June, 24 2021.
Downloads
Publicado
2021-09-06
Como Citar
Nesteruk, I. (2021). A real dinâmica da pandemia COVID-19 no Catar em 2021: simulações, previsões e verificações do modelo SIR. Semina: Ciências Exatas E Tecnológicas, 42(1Supl), 55–62. https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp55
Edição
Seção
Artigos
Licença
Os Direitos Autorais para artigos publicados nesta revista são de direito do autor. Em virtude de aparecerem nesta revista de acesso público, os artigos são de uso gratuito, com atribuições próprias, em aplicações educacionais e não-comerciais. A revista se reserva o direito de efetuar, nos originais, alterações de ordem normativa, ortográfica e gramatical, com vistas a manter o padrão culto da língua e a credibilidade do veículo. Respeitará, no entanto, o estilo de escrever dos autores. Alterações, correções ou sugestões de ordem conceitual serão encaminhadas aos autores, quando necessário. Nesses casos, os artigos, depois de adequados, deverão ser submetidos a nova apreciação. As opiniões emitidas pelos autores dos artigos são de sua exclusiva responsabilidade.
Esta obra está licenciada com uma Licença Creative Commons Atribuição-NãoComercial 4.0 Internacional.
