A real dinâmica da pandemia COVID-19 no Catar em 2021: simulações, previsões e verificações do modelo SIR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp55Palavras-chave:
Pandemia do COVID-19, Eficácia da vacinação, Dinâmica da epidemia no Qatar, Modelo SIR, Identificação de parâmetrosResumo
A terceira onda pandêmica de COVID-19 no Catar foi simulada com o uso do modelo SIR generalizado e os dados acumulados de casos relatados pela Universidade Johns Hopkins para o período: 25 de abril a 8 de maio de 2021. Os resultados foram comparados com as simulações SIR realizadas anteriormente para a segunda onda e o número de casos confirmados em laboratório no primeiro semestre de 2021. Apesar da vacinação em massa que começou em dezembro de 2020, o Catar experimentou uma nova onda epidêmica em março-abril de 2021. No final de junho de 2021, os efeitos positivos da vacinação ainda não eram claros, embora o número de vacinados completos já se aproximasse da metade da população. Simulações adicionais demonstraram que muitos casos COVID-19 não são detectados. O número real de casos acumulados no Catar pode ultrapassar aquele confirmado em laboratório em mais de 5 vezes. Esse fato aumenta drasticamente a probabilidade de encontro com uma pessoa infectada e a duração da epidemia.Downloads
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Referências
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GHANAM, R.; BOONE, E.; ABDEL-SALAM, A.-S. G. Seird model for Qatar Covid-19 outbreak: a case study. Letters in Biomathematics, Illinois, p. 1-10, 2020. Preprint. Available from: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12777.pdf. Access in: June, 24 2021.
KERMACK, W. O.; MCKENDRICK, A. G. A Contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the royal society of London, series A., London, v. 115, p. 700-721, 1927.
KOTTASOVÁ, I.; ETZLER, T. Slovakia tested most of the country in two days. Here’s how they did it and what they found. CNN, Atlanta, 2020. Available from: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/02/europe/slovakia-mass-coronavirus-test-intl/index.html. Access in: 2 nov. 2020.
LANGEMANN, D.; NESTERUK, I.; PRESTIN, J. Comparison of mathematical models for the dynamics of the Chernivtsi children disease. Mathematics in computers and simulation, [London], v. 123, p. 68-79, 2016. DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2016.01.003. Access in: June, 24 2021.
MURRAY J. D. Mathematical biology I/II. New York:Springer, 2002.
NESTERUK, I. Visible and real sizes of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine. Innov Biosyst Bioeng, Kyiv, v. 5, n. 2, p. 85–96, 2021a. DOI: 10.20535/ibb.2021.5.2.230487.
NESTERUK, I. COVID19 pandemic dynamics. Singapore: Springer Nature, 2021b. DOI 10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5.
NESTERUK, I. Procedures of parameter identification for the waves of epidemics. In: NESTERUK, I. COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics. Singapore: Springer Nature, 2021c. p. 133-139. DOI 10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_10.
NESTERUK, I. Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations. In: NESTERUK, I. COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics. Singapore: Springer Nature, 2021d. p. 23-32. DOI 10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_4.
NESTERUK, I.; BENLAGHA, N. Predictions of Covid-19 pandemic dynamics in Ukraine and Qatar based on generalized sir model. Innov Biosyst Bioeng, Kyiv, v. 5, n. 1, p. 37–46, 2021. DOI 10.20535/ibb.2021.5.1.228605.
NOVAK, T. An experiment with mass testing for COVID-19 was conducted in Khmelnytsky (in Ukrainian). Podillya NEWS, Kiev, 2021. Available from: https://podillyanews.com/2020/12/17/u-shkolah-hmelnytskogo-provely-eksperyment-z-estuvannyam-na-covid-19/. Access in: June, 24 2021.
OUR WORLD IN DATA. COVID-19 Dataset by Our World in Data, 2021. Available from: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data. Access in: June, 24 2021.
SLOVAKIA’S second round of coronavirus tests draws large crowds. Voa, Lang, 2020. Available from: https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/slovakias-second-round-coronavirus-tests-draws-large-crowds. Access in: 7 nov. 2020.
WEINBERGER, D. M., COHEN, T., CRAWFORD, F. W., MOSTASHARI, F., OLSON, D., PITZER, V. E., REICH, N., G., RUSSI, M., SIMONSEN, L., WATKINS, A., VIBOUD, C. Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States. MedRxiv, New Haven, p. 1-28, 2020. Preprint. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066431.
WHO - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) weekly epidemiological update and weekly operational update. Geneva: WHO, 2019. Available from: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/. Access in: June, 24 2021.
ZHEN, L. Coronavirus: ‘strange pneumonia’ seen in Lombardy in November, leading Italian doctor says. South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 22 mar. 2020. Available from: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076334/coronavirus-strange-pneumonia-seen-lombardy-november-leading. Access in: June, 24 2021.
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2021-09-06
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Nesteruk, I. (2021). A real dinâmica da pandemia COVID-19 no Catar em 2021: simulações, previsões e verificações do modelo SIR. Semina: Ciências Exatas E Tecnológicas, 42(1Supl), 55–62. https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp55
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