Wagner's Law against Keynesian Hypothesis

An Analysis for Mexico from 1990 to 2021

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5433/2317-627X.2024.v12.n3.49625

Keywords:

Wagner’s Law, Keynesian Hypothesis, economic growth, public spenditure.

Abstract

The objective of this article is to make a contrast on Wagner's Law against the Keynesian Hypothesis in Mexico for the period from 1990 to 2021 to know the relationship between economic growth and public spending, for this, they were elaborated cointegration and causality tests using time series data. The results present evidence of the existence of a causal relationship of economic growth on public spending and of a long-term cointegration between both variables, therefore, these results support the presence of Wagner's Law in the Mexican economy for the period analyzed.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Eleazar Benitez Obregón, Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas

Bachelor's Degree in Economics and Sustainable Development from the Victoria School of Commerce and Administration, Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas. Member of the Colegio de Economistas de Tamaulipas A. C., in its Department of Regional Studies. E-mail: eleazar.benitez97@gmail.com

Arnoldo Eluzaim Rodríguez Sánchez, Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas

Economist and Master in Business Management, Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipa. Member of the Colegio de Economistas de Tamaulipas A.C., in its Department of Regional Studies. Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipa. E-mail: arnoldoeluzaim@hotmail.com

Francisco Garcia Fernandez, Universidad Autonoma de Tamaulipas

D. in Economics and Business Administration from Universidad de Santiago de Compostela. Research Professor at the Facultad de Comercio y Administración Victoria, Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas. Member of the National System of Researchers. E-mail: ffernandez@docentes.uat.edu.mx

Jesús Gerardo Delgado Rivas, Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas

PHD. in Administration. Research Professor of theFacultad de Comercio y Administración Victoria. Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas. Member of the National System of Researchers. E-mail: jdelgador@docentes.uat.edu.mx

References

APARCO, E.; FLORES, A. La hipótesis keynesiana del gasto público frente a la ley de Wagner: un análisis de cointegración y causalidad para Perú. Revista de Economía del Rosario, Bogotá, v. 22, n. 1, p. 53-73, abr. 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.7764. Acceso em: 18 oct. 2022.

ASHWORTH, J. Spurious in Mexico: a comment on Wagner’s law. Public Finance, Chicago, v. 49, n. 2, p. 282-286, 1994. Disponible en: https://ideas.repec.org/a/pfi/pubfin/v49y1994i2p282-86.html. Acceso en:18 oct. 2022.

BIRD, R. M. Wagner's law of expanding state activity. Public Finance, Chicago, v. 26, n. 1, p. 1-26, 1971. Disponible en: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226647729_Wagner's_Law_of_Expanding_State_Activity#:~:text=Bird%20(1971)%20outlined%20the%20reasons,legal%20system%3B%20(b)%20real. Acceso em: 20 nov. 2022.

CAMARGO, A. I.; GONZÁLEZ FAVILA, M. A. Gasto De gobierno y crecimiento económico en México, cambios de régimen y causalidad asimétrica. Cuadernos de Economía, Bogotá, v. 45, n. 127, p. 92-105, enero 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32826/cude.v1i127.608.

CHICK, V. Macroeconomics after Keynes: a reconsideration of the general theory. Cambridge: The MIT Press, 1983.

CONAPO - CONSEJO NACIONAL DE POBLACIÓN. Obtenido de datos abiertos. [Cidade do México]: CONAPO, 2021. Disponible en: https://datos.gob.mx/busca/dataset/proyecciones-de-la-poblacion-de-mexico-y-de-las-entidades-federativas-2016-2050/resource/b29b9649-72bc-48e7-9edd-c385b0f450e8. Acceso en: 27 nov. 2022.

GALINDO, L.; CORDERA, R. Las relaciones de causalidad entre el gasto público y el producto en México: ¿existe evidencia de cambio estructural?. Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas, Ciudad de México, v. 4, n. 4, p. 369-386, 2005. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v4i4.211.

GOFFMAN, I. On the empirical testing of Wagner’s law: a technical note. Heslington: Public Finance, Chicago, v. 23, n. 3, p. 359-364, 1968.

GUJARATI, D. N. Principios de econometría. Ciudad de México: Mcgraw Hill, 2006.

GUJARATI, D. N.; PORTER, D. C. Econometría. 5. ed. Ciudad de México: Mcgraw-Hill Interamericana, 2009.

GUPTA, S. Public expenditure and economic growth: a time series analysis. Public Finance, Chicago, v. 22, p. 423-461, 1967.

HAYO, B. No further evidence of Wagner’s law for Mexico. Public Finance, Chicago, v. 49, n. 2, p. 287-294, 1994. Disponible en: https://ideas.repec.org/a/pfi/pubfin/v49y1994i2p287-94.html. Acceso en: 28 oct. 2022

HICKS, J. R. (1937). Mr. Keynes and the" classics"; a suggested interpretation. Econometrica, Chicago, v. 5, n. 2, p. 147-159, Apr., 1937.

INEGI. Producto interno bruto trimestral: año base 2013. Aguascalientes: INEGI, 2021. Disponible en: https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/tabulados/default.aspx?pr=38&vr=5&in=2&tp=20&wr=1&cno=2&idrt=12008&opc=p. Acceso en: 27 nov. 2022

IÑIGUEZ-MONTIEL, A. Government expenditure and national income in Mexico: Keynes versus Wagner. Applied Economics Letters, Abingdon, v. 17, n. 9, p. 887-893, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850802599433.

JAÉN GARCÍA, M. La ley de Wagner: un análisis sintético. Madrid: Instituto de Estudios Fiscales, 1998. (Papeles de Trabajo, n. 6/04).

JOHANSEN, S. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Amsterdam, v. 12, n. 2-3, p. 231-254, june/sept. 1988. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3.

KALDOR, N. The case for regional policies. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Hoboken, v. 60, n. 5, p. 481-491, Nov. 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12020.

KALDOR, N. La economía keynesiana cincuenta años después. Investigación Económica, Ciudad de México, v. 46, n. 181, p. 13-66, 2016. Disponible en: https://biblat.unam.mx/hevila/Investigacioneconomica/1987/vol46/no181/2.pdf. Acceso en: 28 oct. 2022.

KEYNES, J. M. The general theory of employment, interest and money. Londres: Macmillan, 1936.

KOOP, G. Analysis of economic data. 4th. ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2013.

KRUGMAN, P. R. Economía internacional. 8. ed. Madrid: Pearson Educación, 2009.

LIN, C. More evidence on Wagner’s law for Mexico. Public Finance, Chicago, v. 50, n. 2, p. 267-277, 1995. Disponible en: https://ideas.repec.org/a/pfi/pubfin/v50y1995i2p267-77.html. Acceso en: 17 nov. 2022

LUCAS, R. E. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, Amsterdam, v. 22, n. 1, p. 3-42, July 1988. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7

MANKIW, N. G. Principles of economics. 9th ed. Independence,KY: Cengage, 2021.

MANN, A. Wagner’s law: an econometric test for Mexico, 1925–1976. National Tax Journal, Washington, D. C, v. 33, n. 2, p. 189-201, 1980. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/ntj41862301.

MATA, H. Nociones elementales de cointegración enfoque de Soren Johansen. Mérida: Universidad de los Andes, 2008.

MURTHY, N. Further evidence of Wagner’s law for Mexico: an application of cointegration analysis. Public Finance, Chicago, v. 48, n. 1, p. 92-96, 1993. Disponible en: https://ideas.repec.org/a/pfi/pubfin/v48y1993i1p92-96.html. Acceso en: 26 oct. 2022.

MURTHY, N. Wagner’s law, spurious in Mexico or misspecification: a reply. Public Finance, Chicago, v. 49, n. 2, p. 295–303, 1994. Disponible en: https://ideas.repec.org/a/pfi/pubfin/v49y1994i2p295-303.html. Acceso en: 26 oct. 2022

MUSGRAVE, R. A. Fiscal systems. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1969.

NAGARAJAN, P.; SPEARS, A. An econometric test of Wagner´S law for Mexico: a reexamination. Public Finance, Chicago, v. 45, n. 1, p. 167-178, 1990. Disponible en: https://ideas.repec.org/a/pfi/pubfin/v45y1990i1p165-68.html. Acceso en: 26 oct. 2022

PEACOCK, A. T.; WISEMAN, J. The growth of public expenditure in the United Kingdom. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1961.

PRESNO, M. J. Contrastes de Estacionariedad en Series con un Cambio en la Media. Revista de Economía Aplicada, Zaragoza, v. 10, n. 29, p. 107-134, 2002.

RAMÍREZ CEDILLO, E. La política fiscal desde una perspectiva de crecimiento endógeno, equilibrio presupuestal y fluctuaciones de Corto Plazo. problemas del desarrollo. Problemas del Desarrollo: Revista Latinoamericana de Economía, Ciudad de México, v. 39, n. 152, p. 113-137, ene./mar. 2008.

RODRÍGUEZ, D.; LÓPEZ-HERRERA, F. Desarrollo económico y gasto público de las entidades federativas en México: análisis de cointegración en panel y la ley de Wagner. Gestión y Política Pública, Ciudad de México, v. 22, n. 2, p. 299-330, jul./dic. 2014. Disponible en: https://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?pid=S1405-10792014000200001&script=sci_abstract. Acceso en:

RODRÍGUEZ, D.; VENEGAS-MARTÍNEZ, F.; LIMA, V. La ley de Wagner versus la hipótesis keynesiana: el caso de México, 1950-2009. Investigación Económica, Ciudad de México, v. 72, n. 283, p. 69-98, 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0185-1667(13)72587-6.

ROMER, P. M. Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, Chicago, v. 94, n. 5, p. 1002-1037, Oct. 1986. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/261420.

ROMER, P. M. Are nonconvexities important for understanding growth? The American Economic Review, Nashville, v. 80, n. 2, p. 97-103, May 1990. DOI: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2006550.

ROS, J. La teoría general de Keynes y la macroeconomía moderna. Investigación Económica, Ciudad de México, v. 71, n. 279, p. 19-37, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2012.279.37327.

SAMUELSON, P. A. Consumption theory in terms of revealed preference. Economica, [S. l.], v. 15, n. 60, p. 243-253, Nov. 1948. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2549561.

SÁNCHEZ-JUÁREZ, I.; GARCÍA ALMADA, R. M.; BARAJAS BUSTILLOS, H. The relationship between total production and public spending in Mexico: Keynes versus Wagner. International Journal of Financial Research, Los Angeles, v. 7, n. 1, p. 109-120, 2016. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v7n1p109.

SECRETARÍA DE HACIENDA Y CRÉDITO PÚBLICO. Estadísticas oportunas de finanzas públicas. [S. l.: s. n.], [2021]. Disponible en: http://presto.hacienda.gob.mx/EstoporLayout/. Acceso en: 27 nov. 2022.

SIDERIS, D. Wagner's law in 19th century Greece: a cointegration and causality analysis. Bank of Greece, Αthens, n. 64, p. 1-19, Dec. 2007. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4164000.

SOLOW, R. M. A skeptical note on the constancy of relative shares. The American Economic Review, Nashville, v. 48, n. 4, p. 618-631, Sept. 1958. DOI: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1808271

WAGNER, A. Finanzwissenschaft. Leipzig: C.F. Winter, 1890.

Published

2024-09-10

How to Cite

Benitez Obregón, E., Rodríguez Sánchez, A. E., Garcia Fernandez, F., & Delgado Rivas, J. G. (2024). Wagner’s Law against Keynesian Hypothesis: An Analysis for Mexico from 1990 to 2021. Economia & Região, 12(3), 532–550. https://doi.org/10.5433/2317-627X.2024.v12.n3.49625