COVID-19 in Londrina-PR: SEIR Model with Parameter Optimization
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp45Keywords:
COVID-19. Londrina-PR, SEIR model, Parameter optimization, ODE, Bio-MathematicsAbstract
The first cases of COVID-19 in Londrina-PR were manifested in March 2020 and the disease lasts until the present moment. We aim to inform citizens in a scientific way about how the disease spreads. The present work seeks to describe the behavior of the disease over time. We started from a compartmental model of ordinary differential equations like SEIR to find relevant information such as: transmission rates and prediction of the peak of infected people. We used the data released by city hall of Londrina to carry out simulations in periods of 14 days, applying a parameter optimization technique to obtain results with thegreatest possible credibility.Downloads
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References
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BRAUER, F.; CASTILLO-CHAVEZ, C. Mathematical models in population biology and epidemiology. 2nd. ed. New York: Springer, 2012.
BURDEN, R.; FAIRES, J. D. Numerical analysis. 9th. ed. Boston: Brooks: Coles, 2011.
CIRILO, E. R.; NATTI, P. L.; ROMEIRO, N. M. L.; CANDEZANO, M.; POLO, J. One study of COVID-19 spreading at The United States - Brazil – Colombia. Trends in Computational and Applied Mathematics, v. 22, n. 3, p. 1-18, 2021.
CIRILO, E. R.; PETROVSKII, S.; ROMEIRO, N. M. L.; NATTI, P. L. Investigation into the critical domain problem for the reaction-telegraph equation using advanced numerical algorithms. International Journal of Applied and Computational Mathematics, [London], v. 5, n. 54, p. 1-25, 2019.
CORONAVÍRUS se espalha para a estação de pesquisa da Antártida. BBC News Brazil, São Paulo, 22 dez. 2020. Disponível em: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-55419107. Acesso em: 3 Fev. 2021.
CUMINATO, J. A.; MENEGUETTE JUNIOR, M. Discretização de equações diferenciais parciais: técnicas de diferenças finitas. Rio de Janeiro: SBM, 2013.
DEVORE, J. Probability and statistics for engineering and the sciences. 8th. ed. Boston: Cengrage, 2012.
GFORTRAN. Home of GNU Fortran. [S. l.]: Free Software Foundation, 2020. Disponível em: https://gcc.gnu.org/fortran. Acesso em: Fev. 2021.
IBGE. Londrina: panorama. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2020a. Disponível em: https://cidades.ibge.gov.br/brasil/pr/londrina/panorama. Acesso em: 3 Fev. 2021.
IBGE. Produto interno bruto dos municípios. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2020b. Disponível em: https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/economicas/contas-nacionais/9088-produto-interno-bruto-dos-municipios.html?=&t=pib-por-municipio&c=4113700. Acesso em: 3 Fev. 2021.
INLOCO. Índice de isolamento social. 2020. Disponível em: https://public.tableau.com/profile/inloco.tableau#!/vizhome/MKTScoredeisolamentosocial/VisoGeral.Acesso em: 3 Fev. 2021.
KERMACK, W.; MCKENDRICK, A. Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics I. Proceedings of the Royal Society, London, v. 115A, p. 700-721, 1927.
KERMACK, W.; MCKENDRICK, A. Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics II: the problem of endemicity. Proceedings of the Royal Society, London, v. 138A, p. 55-83, 1932.
KERMACK, W.; MCKENDRICK, A. Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics III: further studies of the problem of endemicity. Proceedings of the Royal Society, London, v. 141A, p. 94-122, 1933.
LAUER, S. A; GRANTZ, K. H.; BI, Q.; JONES, F. K.; ZHENG, Q.; MEREDITH, H. R.; AZMAN, A. S.; REICH, N. G.; LESSLER J. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) from publicly peported confirmed cases: estimation and application. Annals of Internal Medicine, Philadelphia, v. 172, n. 9, p. 577-582, 2020. DOI: 10.7326/M20-0504.
LONDRINA tem primeiro caso confirmado de coronavírus. Radio Paiquere, Londrina, 17 mar. 2020. Disponível em: https://www.paiquere.com.br/londrina-tem-primeiro-caso-confirmado-de-coronavirus/. Acesso em: 3 Fev. 2021.
LONDRINA. Decreto n. 334, 17 de Março de 2020. Regulamenta medidas relativas às ações a serem coordenadas pela Secretaria Municipal de Saúde para o enfrentamento da Emergência em Saúde Pública de Importância Nacional (ESPIN) decorrente do coronavírus (COVID-19). Jornal Oficial do Município, Londrina, PR, n. 4023, p. 226-229, 18 Mar. 2020a.
LONDRINA. Secretaria Municipal de Saúde. Boletim diário Coronavírus. Londrina: SMS, 2020b. Disponível em: https://saude.londrina.pr.gov.br/index.php/dados-epidemiologicos/boletim-informativo.html. Acesso em: 3 Fev. 2021.
LONDRINA. Secretaria Municipal de Saúde. Boletim Informativo Agosto 2020. Londrina: SMS, 2020c. Disponível em: https://saude.londrina.pr.gov.br/index.php/dados-epidemiologicos/96-boletim-informativo-coronavirus/656-boletim-informativo-agosto-2020.html. Acesso em: 3 Fev. 2021.
SUSUKI, A. M.; OLAK, A. S.; LEÃO, A. L. F.; KANASHIRO, M; URBANO, M. R. Evolution of COVID-19 in Londrina (State of Paraná – Brazil) between March and August of 2020. Semina: Ciênc. Ex. Tech., v. 42, n. 1Supl, p. 5-16, 2021.
WHO – WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. Geneva: WHO, 2020a. Disponível em: https://covid19.who.int/. Acesso em: Fev. 2021.
WHO – WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. WHO is closely monitoring this event and will share more details as we have them. WHO is working across the 3 levels (country office, regional office, HQ) to track the situation. Geneva, 4 jan. 2020b. Twitter: @WHO. Disponível em: https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1213523866703814656. Acesso em: 3 Fev. 2021.
WHO – WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. WHO disease outbreak news report. Geneva: WHO, 2020c. Disponível em: https://www.who.int/csr/don/12-january -2020-novel-coronavirus-china/en/. Acesso em: Fev. 2021.
WHO – WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. WHO technical guidance: naming the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the virus that causes it. Geneva: WHO, 2020d. Disponível em: https://www.who.int/emergencie s/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it. Acesso em: Fev. 2021.
WHO – WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. WHO speech:/ opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19. Geneva: WHO, 2020e. Disponível em: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020. Acesso em: Fev. 2021.
WHO – WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. WHO Q& A on Coronaviruses (COVID-19). Geneva: WHO, 2020f. Disponível em: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses. Acesso em: Fev. 2021.
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Published
2021-07-20
How to Cite
Cirilo, E. R., Natti, P. L., Godoi, P. H. V. de, Lerma, A., Matias, V., & Romeiro, N. M. L. (2021). COVID-19 in Londrina-PR: SEIR Model with Parameter Optimization. Semina: Ciências Exatas E Tecnológicas, 42(1Supl), 45–54. https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp45
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