COVID-19 in Londrina-PR: SEIR Model with Parameter Optimization

COVID-19 in Londrina-PR: SEIR Model with Parameter Optimization

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp45

Keywords:

COVID-19. Londrina-PR, SEIR model, Parameter optimization, ODE, Bio-Mathematics

Abstract

The first cases of COVID-19 in Londrina-PR were manifested in March 2020 and the disease lasts until the present moment. We aim to inform citizens in a scientific way about how the disease spreads. The present work seeks to describe the behavior of the disease over time. We started from a compartmental model of ordinary differential equations like SEIR to find relevant information such as: transmission rates and prediction of the peak of infected people. We used the data released by city hall of Londrina to carry out simulations in periods of 14 days, applying a parameter optimization technique to obtain results with thegreatest possible credibility.

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Author Biographies

Eliandro Rodrigues Cirilo, Universidade Estadual de Londrina - UEL

Prof. Dr., Depto. de Matemática, UEL, Londrina, Paraná, Brasil.

Paulo Laerte Natti, Universidade Estadual de Londrina - UEL

Prof. Dr., Depto. de Matemática, UEL, Londrina, Paraná, Brasil.

Pedro Henrique Valério de Godoi, Universidade Estadual de Londrina - UEL

Mestrando, PGMAC, Matemática, UEL, Londrina, Paraná, Brasil. E

Andina Lerma, Universidade Estadual de Londrina - UEL

Mestranda, PGMAC, Matemática, UEL, Londrina, Paraná, Brasil.

Vitor Matias, Universidade Estadual de Londrina - UEL

Graduando, Matemática, UEL, Londrina, Paraná, Brasil.

Neyva Maria Lopes Romeiro, Universidade Estadual de Londrina - UEL

Profa. Dra., Depto. de Matemática, UEL, Londrina, Paraná, Brasil.

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Published

2021-07-20

How to Cite

Cirilo, E. R., Natti, P. L., Godoi, P. H. V. de, Lerma, A., Matias, V., & Romeiro, N. M. L. (2021). COVID-19 in Londrina-PR: SEIR Model with Parameter Optimization. Semina: Ciências Exatas E Tecnológicas, 42(1Supl), 45–54. https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp45

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