Evolution of COVID-19 in Londrina (State of Paraná – Brazil) between March and August of 2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp5Keywords:
Pandemic, Spatio-temporal description, SARS-CoV-2, Statistical analysisAbstract
The pandemic situation of COVID-19 has provided strong impacts that can be observed everywhere, especially in underdeveloped countries. The purpose of this paper is to describe the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Londrina (second biggest city of State of Paraná – Brazil) between March 9 and August 10 of 2020. For that, spatio-temporal descriptive and statistical analysis were performed to identify its evolution in the city. The first cases of COVID-19 in Londrina were registered in March (considering the symptoms onset day) and were located in central and southern regions of the city, both with high vertical residential density and higher average incomes. Soon, COVID-19 exponentially increased in a short period of time with a reproduction number, R0 =1.45. However, some measures adopted by the city Hall and Paraná State Government slowed down the evolution of cases in Londrina, like the suspension of non-essential activities and classes in the very beginning of the pandemic, and also the expansion of intensive therapy units (ITU) in existing hospitals, which avoided a collapse in the healthy system of the city. Such findings can be helpful to avoid a second wave of COVID-19 cases, and ways to deal with future pandemics.Downloads
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References
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BOTEGA, L. A.; ANDRADE, M. V.; GUEDES, G. R. Brazilian hospitals’ performance: an assessment of the unified health system (SUS). Health Care Management Science, [London], v. 23, p. 443-452, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-020-09505-5.
BRITO, L. G. O.; RIBEIRO, P. A.; SILVA-FILHO, A. L. How Brazil is dealing with COVID-19 pandemic arrival regarding elective gynecological surgeries. Journal of Minimally Invasive Gynecology, Philadelphia, v. 27, n. 5, p. 1218-1219, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmig.2020.04.028.
CANALS, M.; CUADRADO, C.; CANALS, A.; YOHANNESSEN, K.; LEFIO, L. A.; BERTOGLIA, M. P.; EGUIGUREN, P.; SICHES, I.; IGLESIAS, V.; ARTEAGA, O. Epidemic trends, public health response and health system capacity: the Chilean experience in four months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Rev Panam Salud Publica, Washington, v. 44, p. 1-8, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26633/RPSP.2020.99.
CORREA-GALENDI, J. S.; DIZ, M. P. E.; STOCK, S.; MÜLLER, D. Economic modelling of screen-and-treat strategies for brazilian women at risk of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer. Appl Health Econ Health Policy, Auckland, p. 1-16, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40258-020-00599-0.
COURTEMANCHE, C.; GARUCCIO, J.; LE, A.; PINKSTON, J.; YELOWITZ, A. Strong social distancing measures in the United States reduced the COVID-19 growth rate. Health Affairs, Millwood, v. 39, n. 7, p. 1237-1246, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00608.
DEJTIAR F. Is coronavirus pandemic accelerating the digitalization and automation of cities?. ArchDaily, [S. l.], 27 mar. 2020. Available from: https://www.archdaily.com/936064/is-coronavirus-pandemic-accelerating-the-digitalization-and-automation-of-cities. Acess in: 20 aug.2020.
DHAVAL, D. Urban densities and the COVID-19 pandemic: upending the sustainability myth of global megacities. Observer Reserch Foudation, Nova Delhi, v.244, p. 1-38, 2020. Available from: https://www.orfonline.org/research/urban-densities-and-the-covid-19-pandemic-upending-the-sustainability-myth-of-global-megacities-65606/. Acess in: 20 aug. 2020.
IBGE - INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA. Estimativas da população 2020. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2020. Available from: https://www.ibge.gov.br/cidades-e-estados/pr/londrina.ht0ml. Acess in: 20 aug. 2020.
JOHNSON, S. The ghost map: the story of London’s most terrifying epidemic – and how it changed Science, cities, and the modern world. New York: Riverhead Books, 2007.
LEMOS, D. R. Q.; D‘ANGELO, S. M.; FARIAS, L. A. B. G; ALMEIDA, M. M.; GOMES, R. G.; PINTO, G. P.; FILHO, J. N. C.; FEIJÃO, L. X.; CARDOSO, A. R. P.; LIMA, T. B. R.; LINHARES, P. M. C. L.; MELLO, L. P.; COELHO, T. M.; CAVALCANTI, L. P. G. Health system collapse 45 days after the detection of COVID-19 in Ceará, northeast Brazil: a preliminary analysis. Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop., Rio de Janeiro, v. 53, p. 1-6, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0354-2020.
LI, Y.; LIANG, M.; YIN, X.; LIU, X.; HAO, M.; HU, Z.; WANG, Y.; JIN, L. COVID-19 epidemic outside China: 34 founders and exponential growth. MedRxiv, Cold Spring Harbor, p. 1-8, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029819.
MCLAFFERTY, S. Placing pandemics: geographical dimensions of vulnerability and spread. Eurasian Geography and Economics, Columbia, v. 51, n. 2, p. 143-161, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2747/1539-7216.51.2.143.
MEGAHED, N.; GHONEIM, E. Antivirus-built environment lessons learned from COVID-19 pandemic. Sustainable cities and society, Amsterdam, v. 61, p. 1-9, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102350.
MUGGAH, R.; ERMACORA, T. Opinion: redesigning the COVID-19 city. NPR, [S. l.], 20 apr. 2020. Available from: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/20/839418905/opinion-redesigning-the-covid-19-city. Acess in: 20 aug. 2020.
NICOLA, M.; ALSAFI, Z.; SOHRABI, C.; KERWAN, A.; AL-JABIR, A.; IOSIFIDIS, C.; AGHA, M.; AGHA, R. The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus and COVID-19 pandemic: a review. International Journal of Surgery, London, v. 78, p. 185–193, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.04.018.
NUNES, A.; ALAPANIAN, S. O ministério público e o direito à saúde em Londrina. Serviço Social em Revista, Londrina, v. 8, n. 1, 2005. Available from: http://www.uel.br/revistas/ssrevista/c-v8n1_alexandra.htm. Access in: 20 aug. 2020.
OLIVEIRA, A. R. Covid-19 is causing the collapse of Brazil’s national health service. BJM, London, v. 370, p.1-2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3032.
ORELLANA, J. D. Y.; CUNHA, G. M.; MARRERO, L.; HORTA, B. L.; LEITE, I. C. Explosão da mortalidade no epicentro amazônico da epidemia de COVID-19. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, Rio de Janeiro, v. 36, n. 7, p. 1-8, 2020. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-311X00120020.
PANOVSKA-GRIFFITHS, J. P.; CLIFF, C. K.; STUART, R.M.; MISTRY, D.; KLEIN, D. J.; VINER, R. M.; BONELL, C. Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, the impact of test and trace interventions, and the risk of occurrence of a second COVID-19 epidemic wave in the UK: a modelling study. The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, Cambridge, v. 4, n.11, p.817-827, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-4642(20)30250-9.
PARANÁ. Secretaria da Saúde. 17a regional de saúde Londrina. Curitiba: Secretaria da Saúde, 2020. Available from: https://www.saude.pr.gov.br/Pagina/17a-Regional-de-SaudeLondrina#.Acessin:20aug.2020.
R CORE TEAM R. A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Vienna: R Core Team, 2020. Available from: https://www.R-project.org/. Acess in: 20 aug. 2020.
RODRIGUEZ-MORALES, A.; GALLEGO, V.; ESCALERA-ANTEZANA, J.; MENDEZ, C.; ZAMBRANO, L.; FRANCO-PAREDES, C.; RISQUEZ, A. COVID-19 in Latin America: The implications of the first confirmed case in Brazil. Travel Med Infect Dis, Amsterdam, v. 35, p. 1-3, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101613.
SHEREEN, M. A.; KHAN, S.; KAZMI, A.; BASHIR, N.; SIDDIQUE, R. COVID-19 infection: origin, transmission, and characteristics of human coronaviruses. Journal of Advanced Research, Giza, v. 24, p. 91-98, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jare.2020.03.005.
WHO - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations: scientific brief. 2020. Available from: https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations. Acess in: 20 aug. 2020.
XU, S.; LI, Y. Beware of the second wave of COVID-19. Lancet, New York, v. 395, p.1321-1322, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30845-X.
YOU, C.; DENG, Y.; HU, W.; SUN, J.; LIN, Q.; ZHOU, F.; PANG, C. H.; ZHANG, Y.; CHEN, Z.; ZHOU, X. Estimation of the time-varying reproduction number of COVID-19 outbreak in China. International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health, Jena, v. 228, p. 1-7, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253
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Published
2021-02-26
How to Cite
Susuki, A., Olak, A., Leão, A. L., Kanashiro, M., & Urbano, M. (2021). Evolution of COVID-19 in Londrina (State of Paraná – Brazil) between March and August of 2020. Semina: Ciências Exatas E Tecnológicas, 42(1Supl), 5–16. https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp5
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