Climate change on the forecasted risk of bovine fasciolosis in Espírito Santo state, Brazil

Resumo

The climate change expected for the coming years can cause large economic losses and a strong impact on intestinal parasites of ruminants throughout the world. In this sense, organisms belonging to the class trematoda seem to be highly sensitive to any changes in the patterns of temperature and rainfall caused by possible climate change. So, maps were elaborated forecasting current and future risk to Fasciola hepatica in the state of Espírito Santo, Southeast of Brazil, using as a base increases in the temperature ranging from 1°C to 5°C. Environmental and climatic factors like temperature, rainfall, altitude and declivity were used for generation of maps bioclimatic risk of fasciolosis through of the ArcGIS/ArcInfo 10.1 Software. High-risk areas resulted in a total of 35.42% for the current risk and tended to decrease with increases in temperature over the next 100 years, which favored a reduction of 35.42% to 33.84% in these regions. The places included in the of low risk areas showed significant increases in their areas for temperatures up to 5°C with values ranging from 24.65% to 28.26% of their areas. These forecasting models using increases in temperatures in the generation of risk maps to F. hepatica were first made in Brazil and like the others, represented a tendency to aid in policy making animal and human health oriented regions shown to be potentially suitable for the risk of bovine fasciolosis.