Disaster-Related Issues in Brazil's National Social Assistance Policy: Dynamics of Policy Change and Robustness

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of the incorporation of disaster-related issues into the design of Brazil’s National Social Assistance Policy (PNAS), the country’s main social assistance policy. Drawing on the policy design literature, it starts from the premise that policy designs are dynamic and evolve over time in response to changing social problems. The way these changes are incorporated can either strengthen policy effectiveness or undermine policy performance. To analyze this process, a documentary review was conducted of the formal policy documents that shape the PNAS design. Documents published between 2004 and 2024 containing the terms “disaster” or “calamity” were identified, resulting in a dataset of 79 documents. The analysis shows that changes in the policy design were predominantly linear and oriented toward gradual adjustments, although they assumed different characteristics over time. Between 2004 and 2020, changes were mainly evolutionary and adaptive, focusing on the refinement of policy instruments. From 2021 onward, changes became more disruptive and cumulative, involving the reformulation of the problem and the adoption of a new paradigm based on disaster risk management. The findings suggest that the PNAS has developed a robust and adaptive policy architecture. However, persistent challenges in achieving congruence among problems, objectives, and instruments may limit its effectiveness, particularly in responding to disasters and other critical events.