The foreign policy of the Lula da Silva presidency: balances and destinations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0383.2024v45n1p109Keywords:
Foreign policy, Lula, Third termAbstract
This article presents a brief assessment of Brazilian foreign policy during President Lula's first terms, projecting the challenges and possibilities for the country's international insertion into his third term. Empirically, we use the foreign policy index to describe the recent development of Brazil's bilateral engagement, enabling us to evaluate past foreign policy in light of the international and domestic contexts. The central argument of the article is the impossibility of repeating the expansion of foreign policy observed in the 2000s due to systemic and budgetary constraints, limiting Brazil's leadership capacity. The universalization of partnerships, the instrumentalization of the environment to obtain resources and leadership in the fight against poverty are recent initiatives with potential for success. Less ambitious, the foreign policy of Lula's third term should serve as an instrument for obtaining resources, adjusting Brazil's current position in the world.
Downloads
References
AMORIM, Celso. Laços de confiança: o Brasil na AmeÌrica do Sul. São Paulo: BenviraÌ, 2022.
APOLINÁRIO JÚNIOR, Laerte. International development cooperation as a foreign policy instrument: the political economy of brazilian technical cooperation from 2003 to 2016. Dados, Rio de Janeiro, v. 66, n. 3, p. e20200181, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/dados.2023.66.3.288. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/dados.2023.66.3.288
BAILEY, Michael A., STREZHNEV, Anton; VOETEN, Erik. Estimating dynamic state preferences from United Nations voting data. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Thousand Oaks, v. 61, n. 2, p. 430-456, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715595700. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715595700
BALDWIN, David A. Success and failure in foreign policy. Annual Review of Political Science, San Mateo, v. 3, p. 167-182, jun. 2000. DOI 1094-2939/00/0623-0167$14.00. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.167
BANKS, Robert. A resource guide to public diplomacy evaluation. Los Angeles: Figueroa Press, 2011.
BNDES - BANCO NACIONAL DO DESENVOLVIMENTO. Transparência. BNDES, Brasília, DF, [2024]. Disponível em: https://www.bndes.gov.br/wps/portal/site/home/transparencia/. Acesso em: 31 jul. 2024.
BRASIL. Execução da despesa na ação orçamentária. Brasília, DF: Controladoria Geral da União, 2023. Disponível em: https://portaldatransparencia.gov.br/programas-e-acoes/acao/2533-cooperacao-tecnica-internacional?ano=2023. Acesso em: 31 jul. 2024.
BURGES, Sean W. Revisiting consensual hegemony: brazilian regional leadership in question. International Politics, Berlin, v. 52, n. 2, p. 193-207, 2015. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/ip.2014.43. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/ip.2014.43
CAMPBELL, Horácio. China in Africa: challenging US global hegemony. Third World Quarterly, Abingdon, v. 29, n. 1, p. 89-105, 2008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01436590701726517. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01436590701726517
CARMODY, Padre; DASANDI, Niheer MIKHAYLOV, Slava J. Power plays and balancing acts: the paradoxical effects of chinese trade on african foreign policy positions. Political Studies, Thousand Oaks, v. 68, n. 1, p. 224-246, 2020. DOI 10.1177/0032321719840962. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321719840962
CARRANZA, Mário E. Rising regional powers and international relations theories: comparing Brazil and India's foreign security policies and their search for great-power status. Foreign Policy Analysis, Oxford, v. 13, n. 2, p. 255-277, fev. 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/fpa.12065. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/fpa.12065
CERVO, Amado Luiz. Brazil's rise on the international scene: Brazil and the world. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, Brasília, DF, v. 53, n. 3, p. 7-32, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000300002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000300002
CONTEH-MORGAN, Earl. The United States and China: strategic rivalry in Africa. Insight Turkey, Ankara, v. 20, n. 1, p. 39-52, 2018. Disponível em: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26301066. Acesso em: 31 jul. 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2018201.03
DELGADO, Fernanda; STIER, Klaus; FEBRARO, Júlia; MARQUES, João Victor. Precisamos Falar sobre a Venezuela: Impactos petropolíticos e reflexos para o Brasil.. São Paulo: Fundação Getúlio Vargas, dez. 2017. (Caderno Opinião).
DÍAZ, José Alejandro Sebastian Barrios. O lugar de Moçambique na cooperação brasileira para o desenvolvimento internacional. Campos Neutrais, Santa Vitória do Palmar, v. 5, n. 2, p. 56-75, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14295/rcn.v5i2.15699. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14295/rcn.v5i2.15699
FARIA, Rodrigo Oliveira de. The dismantling of the executive branchs budget toolbox and the control of the budget by the national congress. SciELO, São Paulo, abr. 2022. (Preprints). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.4875. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.4875
FELLET, João. Africanos temem perda de espaço no novo governo brasileiro. BBC, Washington, D.C, 5 jun. 2016. Disponível em: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-36404339. Acesso em: 31 jul. 2024.
HIRST, Monica. A política externa de Lula 3.0: além do horizonte. Cadernos Adenauer, Rio de Janeiro, n. 3, p. 89-109, 2023. Disponível em: https://www.kas.de/documents/265553/19294631/Cadernos+1-2023+-+cap+5.pdf/cc1e72c8-2299-9206-5683-bff860f1735c?t=1682363360257. Acesso em: 31 jul. 2024.
KLEISTRA, Yvonne; WILLIGEN, Niels Van. Evaluating diplomacy: a mission impossible?. Evaluation, Thousand Oaks, v. 16, n. 2, p. 119-135, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1356389009360476. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1356389009360476
LEES, Nicholas. The endurance of the G77 in international relations: south-south ideology and voting at the United Nations 1970-2015. Japanese Journal of Political Science, Cambridge, v. 24, n. 3, p. 310-330, 2023. DOI 10.1017/S1468109923000105. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1468109923000105
LIMA, Maria Regina Soares de. A dialética da política externa de Lula 3.0. Brazilian Journal of International Affairs, Rio de Janeiro, v. 5, p. 79-95, mar. 2023. Disponível em: https://cebri-revista.emnuvens.com.br/revista/article/view/104. Acesso em: 31 jul. 2024.
LIMA, Maria Regina Soares de. A política externa brasileira e os desafios da cooperação sul-sul. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, Brasília, DF, v. 48, p. 24-59, 2005. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292005000100002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292005000100002
LIMA, Maria Regina Soares de; HIRST, Monica. Brazil as an intermediate state and regional power: action, choice and responsibilities. International Affairs, Oxford, v. 82, n. 1, p. 21-40, 2006. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2346.2006.00513.x. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2346.2006.00513.x
MALAMUD, Andrés. Foreign policy retreat: domestic and systemic causes of Brazil's international rollback. Rising Powers Quarterly, Istambul, v. 2, n. 2, p. 149-168, 2017. Disponível em: https://edisciplinas.usp.br/mod/resource/view.php?id=5071219. Acesso em: 31 jul. 2024.
MARIANO, Marcelo Passini; RAMANZINI JUNIOR, Haroldo. Possibilidades de monitoramento e avaliação da política externa brasileira. Tempo do Mundo, Brasília, DF, n. 33, p. 169-203, 2023. DOI 10.38116/rtm33art6. DOI: https://doi.org/10.38116/rtm33art6
MAZUI, Guilherme. Governo cria embaixadas em Serra Leoa, Ruanda e São Vicente e Granadinas. G1, Rio de Janeiro, 30 nov. 2023. Disponível em: https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2023/11/30/governo-cria-embaixadas-em-serra-leoa-ruanda-e-sao-vicente-e-granadinas.ghtml. Acesso em: 31 jul. 2024.
MENDES, Flávio Pedroso. O Brasil e a reforma do conselho de segurança: uma análise realista. Contexto Internacional, Rio de Janeiro, v. 37, n. 1, p. 113-142, 2015. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0102-85292015000100004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0102-85292015000100004
MILANI, Carlos R.; PINHEIRO, Leticia; LIMA, Maria Regina Soares de. Brazil's foreign policy and the 'graduation dilemma'. International Affairs, Oxford, v. 93, n. 3, p. 585-605, maio 2017. DOI 10.1093/ia/iix078. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix078
NDINGA-MUVUMBA, Angela; CORKIN, Lucy. Great power rivalries: China and the west in Africa. In: KANA, Gopi. Crouching tiger, hidden dragon?: China and Africa: engaging the world‟s next superpower. Cidade do Cabo: Centre for Conflict Resolution, 2009. p. 29-30.
NUNES, Raul; RODRIGUEZ, Vitória. A política externa brasileira de Temer-Serra: retração política e subordinação econômica. Boletim de Conjuntura Nerint, Porto Alegre, v. 1 n. 4, p. 30-39, 2017.
OLIVEIRA, Marcelo Fernandes de. Alianças e coalizões internacionais do governo Lula: o Ibas e o G-20. Revista Brasileira De Política Internacional, Brasília, DF, v. 48, n. 2, p. 55-69, 2005. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292005000200003. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292005000200003
PAHLAVI, Pierre. Evaluating public diplomacy programmes. The Hague Journal of Diplomacy, Leiden, v. 2, n. 3, p. 255-281, jan. 2007. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1163/187119007X240523. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1163/187119007X240523
PLAGEMANN, Johannes; DESTRADI, Sandra. Populism and foreign policy: the case of India. Foreign Policy Analysis, Oxford, v. 15, n. 2, p. 283-301, abr. 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/ory010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/ory010
PORTO, Douglas. Lula volta a dizer que governo de Israel está fazendo genocídio contra palestinos. CNN, São Paulo, 23 fev. 2024. Disponível em: https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/lula-volta-a-dizer-que-governo-de-israel-esta-fazendo-genocidio-contra-palestinos/. Acesso em: 31 jul. 2024.
RICUPERO, Rubens. A diplomacia na construção do Brasil: 1750-2016. Rio de Janeiro: Versal, 2017.
RODRIGUES, Pietro; URDINEZ, Francisco; OLIVEIRA, Amâncio. Measuring international engagement: systemic and domestic factors in brazilian foreign policy from 1998 to 2014. Foreign Policy Analysis, Oxford, v. 15, n. 3, p. 370-391, jul. 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orz010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orz010
SANAHUJA, José Antonio. Regionalismo abierto al regionalismo post-liberal: crisis y cambio en la integración regional en América Latina y el Caribe. Buenos Aires: Coordinadora Regional de Investigaciones Económicas y Social, 2009. (Anuario de Integración, n. 7).
SARAIVA, José Flávio Sombra. A nova África e o Brasil na era Lula: o renascimento da política atlântica brasileira. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, Brasília, DF, v. 53, n. 3, p. 7-32, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000300010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000300010
SCHENONI, Luis L.; FELIÚ RIBEIRO, Pedro; LOPES, Dawisson Belém; CASARÕES, Guilherme. Myths multipolarity: sources Brazil's foreign policy overstretch. Foreign Policy Analysis, Oxford, v. 18, n. 1, jan. 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orab037. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orab037
SOMMERFELDT, Erich J.; BUHMANN, Alexander. The status quo of evaluation in public diplomacy: insights from the US state department. Journal of Communication Management, Bingley, v. 23, n. 3, p. 198-212, jun. 2019. DOI 10.1108/JCOM-12-2018-0137. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JCOM-12-2018-0137
ZANINI, Fabio. Euforia e fracasso do Brasil grande: política externa e multinacionais brasileiras na era Lula. São Paulo: Contexto, 2017.
ZUCCO, Cesar; POWER, Timothy. The ideology of brazilian parties and presidents: a research note on coalitional presidentialism under stress. Latin American Politics and Society, Cambridge, v. 66, n. 1, p. 178-188, 2024. DOI 10.1017/lap.2023.24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/lap.2023.24
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Pedro Feliú Ribeiro
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Semina: Ciências Sociais e Humanas adopts the CC-BY-NC license for its publications, the copyright being held by the author, in cases of republication we recommend that authors indicate first publication in this journal.
This license allows you to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, remix, transform and develop the material, as long as it is not for commercial purposes. And due credit must be given to the creator.
The opinions expressed by the authors of the articles are their sole responsibility.
The magazine reserves the right to make normative, orthographic and grammatical changes to the originals in order to maintain the cultured standard of the language and the credibility of the vehicle. However, it will respect the writing style of the authors. Changes, corrections or suggestions of a conceptual nature will be sent to the authors when necessary.
