The MAUP and the effect of industrial diversity on Brazilian regional economic stability

Vinicius  Hiago e Silva Gerônimo; Marcelo de Oliveira Torres

doi:10.5433/2317-627X.2024.v12.n3.49941

Autores

Vinicius Hiago e Silva Gerônimo Universidade de Brasília https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0331-2324
Marcelo de Oliveira Torres Universidade de Brasília https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4277-8497

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5433/2317-627X.2024.v12.n3.49941

Palavras-chave:

diversidade industrial, estabilidade econômica, MAUP, escalas geográficas, econometria espacial

Resumo

A correlação entre diversidade industrial e estabilidade econômica regional é defendida teoricamente como sendo positiva, indicando que uma região que possui uma maior diversificação industrial sofre uma menor interferência de choques exógenos, resultando em uma menor instabilidade econômica. Entretanto, historicamente trabalhos empíricos encontram resultados divergentes, muitas vezes não sendo observada uma significância na correlação. Dentre os possíveis motivos que podem levar a tal divergência, há o Problema de Unidade de Área Modificável (MAUP), foco deste trabalho. O modelo de econometria espacial empregado foi estimado com dados da RAIS e do Censo Demográfico em nível de municípios, microrregiões e mesorregiões brasileiras para os anos de entre 2010 e 2019. Os resultados indicam uma influência espacial em todos os níveis geográficos e apontam para uma variação na magnitude, significância e no sinal da correlação a depender da escala de agregação espacial utilizada, confirmando a hipótese do MAUP no estudo. Além disso, o nível municipal foi o único que apresentou resultados mais coerentes com a teoria no caso brasileiro.

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Biografia do Autor

Vinicius Hiago e Silva Gerônimo , Universidade de Brasília

Graduation in Economic Sciences from the Universidade de Brasília (UnB), Brasília

Marcelo de Oliveira Torres, Universidade de Brasília

PhD in Agricultural Economics and Natural Resources from the University of California - Davis. Professor at the Universidade de Brasília (UnB), Brasília

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