Desigualdade Brasileira e Liberalização Comercial entre Brasil e China e entre Brasil e Estados Unidos

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5433/2317-627X.2024.v12.n2.48647

Palavras-chave:

liberalização comercial, desigualdade, PAEG

Resumo

Este estudo avaliou os possíveis efeitos de um acordo de liberalização comercial entre o Brasil e os Estados Unidos e entre o Brasil e a China sobre a desigualdade de renda, bem-estar e consumo das famílias brasileiras. Utilizamos o Projeto de Análise do Equilíbrio Geral (PAEG), modelo da economia brasileira que divide o país em cinco macrorregiões e categoriza os domicílios em dez grupos de renda por região. Os resultados sugerem que a eliminação das tarifas comerciais entre os EUA e o Brasil tende a diminuir as desigualdades de renda nas regiões subdesenvolvidas e aumentá-las nas regiões desenvolvidas. Da mesma forma, eliminar as tarifas comerciais entre a China e o Brasil tende a ampliar as desigualdades de renda nas regiões subdesenvolvidas e aliviá-las nas regiões desenvolvidas. Além disso, as famílias brasileiras experimentam maiores ganhos em bem-estar e consumo como resultado da remoção das tarifas comerciais entre a China e o Brasil. Este estudo contribui para o debate atual sobre a relação entre abertura comercial e desigualdade no Brasil.

 

Biografia do Autor

Rayan Wolf, Universidade Federal de Viçosa

Universidade Federal de Viçosa

Fabrício Sepúlveda Gomes , Universidade Federal de Viçosa

Universidade Federal de Viçosa

Ian Michael Trotter, Universidade Federal de Viçosa

Universidade Federal de Viçosa

Referências

ABOUBACARI, A.; WOLF, R.; TROTTER, I. M.; MATTOS, L. B. Impact d’une possible libéralisation commerciale entre le Brésil, les États-Unis, l’Union Européenne et la Chine sur l’économie brésilienne: une analyse d’équilibre général calculable. Brazilian Journal of International Relations, Marília, v. 9, n. 2, p. 254-271, 2020. DOI 10.36311/2237-7743.2020.

ALVAREDO, F.; CHANCEL, L.; PIKETTY, T.; SAEZ, E.; ZUCMAN, G. World inequality report 2018. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4159/9780674984769.

ARBACHE, J. S. Wage differentials in Brazil: theory and evidence. Journal of Development Studies, London, v. 38, n. 2, p. 109-130, 2001. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220380412331322281.

ATTANASIO, O.; GOLDBERG, P. K.; PAVCNIK, N. Trade reforms and wage inequality in Colombia. Journal of Development Economics, Amsterdam, v. 74, n. 2, p. 331-366, 2004. Available in: https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0304-3878%2804%2900018-5;h=repec:eee:deveco:v:74:y:2004:i:2:p:331-366. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

AUTOR, D.; DORN, D.; HANSON, G. When work disappears: manufacturing decline and the falling marriage market value of young men. American Economic Review, Pittsburgh, v. 1, n. 2, p. 161-178, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20180010.

BORCHERT, I.; YOTO, V. Y. Distance, globalization, and international trade. Economics Letters, Amsterdã, v. 153, p. 32-38, apr. 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.01.023.

BUENO, E. U.; FEIJÓ, F. T. A entrada da Venezuela no mercosul: uma análise de equilíbrio geral computável sobre os impactos setoriais no Brasil. Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico, Rio de Janeiro, v. 44, n. 1, p. 169-212, apr. 2014. Available in: http://hdl.handle.net/10183/256208. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

CASTILHO, M.; MENÉNDEZ, M.; SZTULMAN, A. Trade liberalization, inequality, and poverty in Brazilian states. World Development, Amsterdã, v. 40, n. 4, p. 821-835, apr. 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.09.018.

CHAKRABARTI, A. Does trade cause inequality?. Journal of Economic Development, Seoul, v. 25, n. 2, p. 1-22, 2000. Available in: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=pt-br&as_sdt=0%2c5&q=chakrabarti%2c+avik+et+al.+%282000%29%2c+“does+trade+cause+inequality%3f”+in%3a+journal+of+economic+development%2c+25%282%29%2c+daejeon%2c+korea%2c+pp.+1–22.+&btng=. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

CHEN, J.; DABO, C.; AIPING, Y. Trade development between China and countries along the belt and road: a spatial econometric analysis based on trade competitiveness and complementarity. Pacific Economic Review, Hoboken, v. 25, p. 205-227, jun. 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12329.

CHIMILILA, C.; SABUNI, C.; AMOS, B. Trade facilitation in EAC customs union: its achievement and implementation in Tanzania. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, [s.l.], v. 5, n. 25, p. 1-14, 2014. Available in: https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JEDS/article/view/17522. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

DAUMAL, M. The impact of trade openness on regional inequality: the cases of India and Brazil. The International Trade Journal, Abingdon, v. 27, n. 3, p. 243-280, 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2013.796839.

TOLIPAN, R.; TINELLI, A. C. A controvérsia sobre distribuição da renda e desenvolvimento. Rio de Janeiro: Zahar, 1975.

PORTO, P. C. S.; CANUTO, O.; MORINI, C. The impacts of trade facilitation measures on international trade flows. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2015.

EDWARDS, S. Trade policy, growth, and income distribution. American Economic Review, Pittsburgh, v. 87, n. 2, p. 205-210, may 1997. Avalaible in: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2950914. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

EZCURRA, R.; RODRÍGUEZ-POSE, A. Does economic globalization affect regional inequality?: a cross-country analysis. World Development, Amsterdan, v. 52, p. 92-103, 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.07.00.

FERREIRA, A. Convergence in Brazil: recent trends and long-run prospects. Applied Economics, Abingdon, v. 32, n. 4, p. 479-489, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/000368400322642.

FERREIRA, F. H. G.; WALTON, M. World development report 2006: equity and development. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2005. v. 28. DOI 10.1596/978-0-8213-6249-5.

FISHLOW, A. Brazilian size distribution of income. American Economic Review, Pittsburgh, v. 62, n. 1/2, p. 391-402, 1972. Avalaible in: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1821573. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

FRANKEL, J. A.; ROMER, D. H. Does trade cause growth?. American Economic Review, Pittsburgh, v. 89, n. 3, p. 379-399, 1999. DOI 10.1257/Aer.89.3.379.

GOÑI, E.; LÓPEZ, J. H.; SERVÉN, L. Fiscal redistribution and income inequality in Latin America. World Development, Amsterdã, v. 39, n. 9, sep. 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.04.025.

GÓES, C.; KARPOWICZ, I. Inequality in Brazil: a closer look at the evolution in states. In: SPILIMBERGO, A.; SRINIVASAN, K. Brazil: boom, bust, and the road to recovery. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2019. p. 127-137.

GURGEL, A. C.; PEREIRA, M. W. G.; TEIXEIRA, E. C. PAEG: a estrutura do PAEG. Viçosa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa, 2013. Avalaible in: http://arquivo.ufv.br/der/paeg/technical%20paper%20n.1_06dez2011.pdf. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

HAP, S. Trade liberalization and social welfare: evidence from Cambodia. 2013. Thesis (Doctorate in Policy Studies) − National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, 2013. DOI 10.13140/RG.2.1.2380.4325.

HAMMAD, S. Brazil: current trade patterns with China threaten the promise of re-industrialization. BNP Paribas, Paris, 5 apr. 2023. Available in: https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/pdf/en-us/brazil-current-trade-patterns-china-threaten-promise-industrialization-4/5/2023,48437. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Office of The United States Trade Representative. Countries and regions: Western Hemisphere, Brazil. USTR, Washington, DC, 2023. Available in: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/brazil. Access in: 16 mar. 2023.

HOEKMAN, B.; NICITA, A. Trade policy, trade costs, and developing country trade. World Development, Amsterdã, v. 39, n. 12, p. 2069-2079, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.05.013.

HORRIDGE, M.; SOUZA, J. B. Would trade liberalization help the poor of Brazil?. World Bank, Washington, DC, n. 106, jun. 2009. Avalaible in: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/28171license:ccby30igo. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

KAHAI, S. K.; SIMMONS, W. The impact of globalisation on income inequality. Global Business and Economics Review, Genebra, v. 7, n. 1, p. 1-15, apr. 2005. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1504/gber.2005.006915.

LANGONI, C. G. Distribuição da renda e desenvolvimento econômico no Brasil: uma afirmação. Estudos Econômicos, São Paulo, v. 8, n. 38, p. 5-88, oct. 1974. Avalaible in: https://www.revistas.usp.br/ee/article/view/143252/137981. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

MENEZES FILHO, N. A.; RODRIGUES JR., M. Openness, technology and skills: evidence from the Brazilian manufacturing. In: WORKSHOP ON TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND THE LABOR MARKET IN BRAZIL, 2001, Brasília, DF. Proceedings [...]. Brasília, DF: Universidade de Brasília: IPEA, 2001.

NERI, M. C.; SOUZA, P. H. G. F. A década inclusiva (2001-2011): desigualdade, pobreza e políticas de renda. Brasília, DF: IPEA, 2012.

PEARSON, K. R.; PARMENTER, B. R.; POWELL, A. A.; WILCOXEN, P. J.; DIXON, P. B. Notes and problems in applied general equilibrium economics. Haarlem: North Holland, 2014.

RODRIGUEZ, F.; RODRIK, D. Trade policy and economic growth: a sceptic’s guide to the cross-national evidence. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Chicago, v. 15, p. 261-325, 2000. DOI: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/654419.

RIBEIRO, G. L. Outras globalizações: cosmopolíticas pós-imperialistas. Rio de Janeiro: EDUERJ, 2014.

RUTHERFORD, T. F. Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Amsterdam, v. 19, n. 8, p. 1299-1324, 1995. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(94)00831-2.

RUTHERFORD, T. F.; PALTSEV, S. V. Gtapingams and GTAP-EG: global datasets for economic research and illustrative models. Boulder: University of Colorado, 2000.

SACCONATO, A. L.; MENEZES FILHO, N. A diferença salarial entre os trabalhadores americanos e brasileiros: uma análise com micro dados. In: ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ECONOMIA, 29., 2001, Niterói. Anais [...]. Niterói: ANPEC, 2001. Avalaible in: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/naercio-menezes-filho/publication/4730064_a_diferenca_salarial_entre_os_trabalhadores_americanos_e_brasileiros_uma_analise_com_micro_dados/links/56efd73908ae01ae3e70de40/a-diferenca-salarial-entre-os-trabalhadores-americanos-e-brasileiros-uma-analise-com-micro-dados.pdf. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

SILVEIRA NETO, R. D. M.; AZZONI, C. R. Non-spatial government policies and regional income inequality in Brazil. Regional Studies, Abingdon, v. 45, n. 4, p. 453-461, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00343400903241485

SKIDMORE, T. E. Policy issues Brazil’s persistent income inequality: lessons from history. Latin American Politics and Society, Cambridge, v. 46, n. 2, p. 133-150, 2004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2004.tb00278.x

TAYLOR, L.; BACHA, E. L.; CARDOSO, E. A.; LYSY, F. J. Models of growth and distribution for Brazil. Washington, DC: World Bank, 1980. Avalaible in: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=pt-br&as_sdt=0%2c5&q=taylor%2c+lance+et+al.+%281980%29%2c+“models+of+growth+and+distribution+for+brazil”%2c+in%3a+world+bank+research+publication%2c+ibrd%2802%29%2ft2%2c+oxford+university+press%2c+c1980%2c+oxford%2c+england+xii%2c+355+p.&btng=. Access in: 1 nov. 2023.

YITZHAKI, S.; SCHECHTMAN, E. More than a dozen alternative ways of spelling Gini. in: Yitzhaki, S.; Schechtman, E., The Gini Methodology: A Primer on a Statistical Methodology. Springer New York, New York, NY. Springer Series in Statistics, 2013, pp. 11–31.

ZHAO, S.; CHANG, T.; NI, Y.; ZHOU, P. An empirical study of trade in goods between China and Brazil: analysis of competitiveness and complementarity. Economies, Basel, v. 11, n. 9, p. 224, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11090224

WINTERS, L. A. Trade liberalization and poverty: what are the links? World Economy, Hoboken, v. 25, n. 9, p. 1339-1367, 2002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00495

WOLF, R.; TEIXEIRA, E. C.; PEREIRA, M. W.; GURGEL, A. C.; MARQUES, H. L. T. Effects of the bolsa família program on income and consumption in Brazilian macroregions. West Lafayette: Purdue University, 2018.

WOLF, R. Assessing the impacts of labour skill improvement in Bolsa Família Program beneficiaries: a computable general equilibrium model analysis. 2021. 164 f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia Aplicada) – Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2021. Avalaible in: https://locus.ufv.br//handle/123456789/28807. Access in: 1 mar. 2023.

Downloads

Publicado

11-06-2024

Como Citar

Aboubacari Mohamed, A., Wolf, R., Gomes , F. S., & Trotter, I. M. (2024). Desigualdade Brasileira e Liberalização Comercial entre Brasil e China e entre Brasil e Estados Unidos. Economia & Região, 12(2), 181–206. https://doi.org/10.5433/2317-627X.2024.v12.n2.48647