The The external vulnerability of the brazilian economy in the post-2008 world economy scenario
a look in light of the structural factors of its commercial and financial insertion (2000-2017)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/2317-627X.2024.v12.n2.49135Keywords:
external vulnerability; balance of payments; productive specialization; currency hierarchy.Abstract
The present work aimed to assess the external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy in the face of the post-2008 world economic scenario, launching brief considerations about the structural factors of its commercial and financial insertion in the period 2000-2017. In order to achieve this objective, we sought not only to make a brief presentation about the main facts and issues that mark the recent scenario of the world economy, but also to take into consideration two complementary theoretical approaches: 1) the ideas of Raúl Prebisch (1949 ) about the division of the world economic system between center and periphery, and 2) the perception that the international monetary and financial system presents profound asymmetries, which derive from the existence of a hierarchy of currencies at an international level. In this sense, highlighting the deepening of uncertainties and asymmetries in the characterization of the world economy, as well as the fact that Brazil constitutes an economy specialized in products (basic and semi-manufactured) with low added value, and issuing a currency with low liquidity internationally, it was observed that the discussion of the external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy is far from being overcome, despite any improvement in cyclical indicators of external vulnerability, such as the significant volume of international reserves accumulated throughout the 2000s.
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