Balanço comercial numa analise quantitativa

Abstract

Attempt to confirm the validity of the econometric model utilized by Lemgruber for the period 1965-1974. This model was applied to the period 1965-1977, in order to test it in the face of a new set of international crisis, such as the increase of petroleum prices, the devaluation of the dollar in relation to the currencies of other industrial countries, and the low growth-rate of the world economy, as well as in the face of the changes in Brazil's foreign economic policy. An alternative model was also tested for econometric applicability to the actual situation of foreign trade. It was observed, in the end, that the models studied sufficiently demonstrated that the improvement of our balance of trade is subject to such external variables as world income and import-export prices, as well as to the internal variable of exchange rate.