Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Variability and its Correlation in the Occurrence of Malaria in Quelimane, Mozambique

Abstract

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by unicellular protozoan parasite of Plasmodium genus. It is a condition that continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality in areas where it is prevalent, especially in Mozambique. Because malaria is considered to be part of a neglected tropical diseases group, this article develops a perspective on the analysis of natural determinants of malaria occurrence, particularly with regard to climate (temperature variability and precipitation) in Quelimane city. The analysis of climate data corresponds to a period of 37 years, from 1980 to 2017; and the correlation established with malaria covers the period of 17 years, from 2000 to 2017. Based on the theoretical assumption that the events associated with occurrence of this disease are strongly related to temperature and precipitation variation, using the quantitative method, the statistical technique of quantiles was used to identify standard years in order to analyze the trends of temperature variability and precipitation. Therefore, correlations were established using Pearson's Coefficient to identify the correlation between temperature, precipitation and malaria, and the occurrence of malaria was consistent with seasonality. The results showed that precipitation has an immediate influence - seasonal and annual, while the temperature is favorable throughout the year in the occurrence of malaria in Quelimane.